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HARMONIC ELLIOTT WAVE

Tuesday, March 13, 2012

Still a little ambiguous


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Yesterday’s moves weren’t really too surprising. There was always going to be uncertainty given the way this structure was set up and in many ways that hasn’t changed. Currently it’s still a matter of sifting through the clues and noting the implications behind certain key levels. There seems to be three broad alternatives: a recycling back to last week’s Dollar lows, more minor strength in the Dollar to marginal highs and then the recycling to last Thursday’s Dollar lows, or direct resumption of the Dollar upside (although only in a correction.)

So which is it to be? Well, I still think that GBPUSD and AUDUSD seem to be pointing lower. USDJPY still has to correct a little deeper but that should be moving higher thereafter… Thus, if I have any preference it is for the second alternative – for Dollar gains to be seen to marginal new highs against the Swissie and Euro and then a recycling.

Let’s just say that’s “Plan A” and in reality workout where the triggers lie that would trigger one of the other two alternatives. It should be noted that “Plan A” then has potential to cause further complications as we move forward as it opens up secondary alternatives – basically extended consolidation. Indeed, this does appear to be a likely outcome given that GBPUSD has dipped to a point where the great risk now lies for more significant losses below 1.50 though not in a straights line.

So for today I feel the stronger structure to watch is actually in USDJPY which, if I have got this right, still suggests minor new losses today followed by another rally. When it comes to the Europeans, it’s GBPUSD that has the risk of a stronger downward push while take much higher than normal care for the continentals as these are the ones that seems to have the potential sting in the tail.

Have a profitable week
Ian Copsey



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