Pages

HARMONIC ELLIOTT WAVE

Wednesday, March 7, 2012

Last leg to come


PLEASE NOTE THAT BY THE END OF THIS MONTH I SHALL BE CLOSING THIS BLOG IN FAVOR OF   http://harmonicelliottwave.blogspot.com/ IN LINE WITH THE HARMONIC ELLIOTT WAVE BRANDING. PLEASE FEEL FREE TO CONNECT DIRECTLY WITH THE NEW BLOG ON WHICH I SHALL POST ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.


Dollar-Europe developed pretty much as expected, after a slow start the Dollar making further gains into N.A. close. There’s still more to go and I can’t rule out Asia marking minor new highs, but we are due for a modest correction to yesterday’s rally that should set up the final leg higher. I can’t see the 1.2974 EURUSD or 0.9300 USDCHF Dollar peaks breaking. In fact I feel there will likely be quite a deep pullback once this move is done & dusted.

In particular I’d like to draw attention to GBPUSD. As I mentioned yesterday, this is the one that may have a different agenda. The choice is between making a minor new low below 1.5644 and a much stronger decline. At this point I am far more in favor of the stronger decline. I’ll detail the areas I feel we need watch in particular in the individual analysis. It’s how this develops that could provide a quasi template for the Dollar in general over the coming week or two, perhaps longer.

The Aussie, not wanting to be left out, joined in the group hug and dropped along with the Euro. That sets up a deeper decline too but not directly. Therefore I think the general correlation between this and Europe will remain modestly high.

Finally, USDJPY… No new highs but direct losses. Will it get back to 80.01 or not? I vote not. It’s very much in a similar situation to Europe and could see one more dip but not too far. More the strain should be taken up by the cross, the Euro most likely pushing down EURJPY to deeper corrective lows. What is interesting is the subsequent implication. Once the low in the cross is seen, probably in line with EURUSD, the reaction in both EURUSD and USDJPY should be higher. Thus this is where the greater upside potential lies in terms of points performance… However, it may well subside into a sideways consolidation once the rush higher has ended…

Good trading
Ian Copsey

No comments:

Post a Comment