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HARMONIC ELLIOTT WAVE

Monday, March 26, 2012

I think I’ll stick to saying the Dollar won’t go down… (but it should…)

 PLEASE NOTE THAT THE FINAL UPDATE TO THIS BLOG WILL BE ON THE 30TH MARCH. THEREAFTER PLEASE SEE  http://harmonicelliottwave.blogspot.com/ IN LINE WITH THE HARMONIC ELLIOTT WAVE BRANDING. PLEASE FEEL FREE TO CONNECT DIRECTLY WITH THE NEW BLOG ON WHICH I SHALL POST ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.




It worked! I’ve learned a new trick… If I don’t say what I think will happen then it happens… The Dollar lost out on Friday and pushed to minor new lows for the week. Will that extend further today? Perhaps I shouldn’t tell you otherwise it may not happen… Joking aside, mainly from what I see in EURJPY I think that either both EURUSD and USDJPY need to rally… or they both need to fall. Which side has the greater capacity for movement? The upside…

If I merely eyeball the chart I could make out an argument for the Europeans to recycle back to last week’s Dollar highs but I’m not convinced that the initial pullback developed in the right manner to suggest that’s possible. Anyway, even if it did then USDJPY would have to find a low around 80.00-20 at the same time as the Euro reached 1.3115-25 for EURJPY to reach the 105.64 low. That seems a bit like remaining in the eye of a hurricane as it travels. It does look more likely that the cross is going to stage a rally and that’s going to require support from both constituent members…

Having said that, this does look more like a pullback higher in USDJPY as Friday’s whip down to 81.97 must now imply an eventual deeper correction lower. It’s going to complicate things but possibly this may just develop as a sideways consolidation while the cross can make further gains.

The Aussie did enough to stake a stronger claim to have found it’s corrective low too. Therefore the indications all round appear to be in sync. Therefore, it does seem to me that the Dollar should extend losses today… but shshshsh, don’t tell anyone otherwise it may not happen…

Have a profitable week
Ian Copsey 

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