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HARMONIC ELLIOTT WAVE

Friday, March 9, 2012

Hmmm… well another cat started attacking pigeons again…


PLEASE NOTE THAT BY THE END OF THIS MONTH I SHALL BE CLOSING THIS BLOG IN FAVOR OF   http://harmonicelliottwave.blogspot.com/ IN LINE WITH THE HARMONIC ELLIOTT WAVE BRANDING. PLEASE FEEL FREE TO CONNECT DIRECTLY WITH THE NEW BLOG ON WHICH I SHALL POST ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.  


Ouch… no new high in the Dollar but break of all the Dollar’s key supports I provided triggered a stronger reversal. Now, this raises a big question mark over the structures in the Dollar recovery. The problem I have is that the final stages of the recovery developed in 5 waves. Well, that is expected in a Wave (c) but the problem I see is that there was no prior Wave (a) in the 5th wave… If that’s the case then we’ve seen a complete correction of the 1.2623-1.3486 rally and thus we should be heading directly higher. As such, the more complicated scenario I had been envisioning is no longer valid.

There’s another clue also to suggest that we’ll see direct Dollar losses. GBPUSD… I had become quite a proponent of a strongly bearish outcome. However, the downside failure in even reaching the 1.5644 low also has its implications and it’s worth noting this. If the Dollar is going to drive lower again then GBPUSD should lag quite considerably and indeed actually remain within the broad range of the past month for a while longer. Its own upside target is not as aggressive as the Euro and Swissie.

I’ll add another factor that tends to point to the same outcome – the U.S. Indices – well add to that the Asian Indices also. All have retraced and come to points where there is virtually no wriggle room left on the downside. Thus U.S. and Asian Indices (I don’t cover European at this point…) are due to resume their respective rallies also. Everything does seem to point to Dollar weakness, and pretty direct.

Fore today I think we have seen, or shall very soon, see the end of the first decline so a correction is due. Now, how long this lasts and whether the Dollar can resume direct losses today or whether it needs wait until Monday is probably down to tonight’s non-farm payrolls. (Yes, I know I don’t look at fundamentals but I still can’t shake the fact that it happens on the first Friday of the month – as long as it’s after the 3rd…) No, fundamentals don’t really change my view. They just imply potentially more complicated patterns… but can also generate moves that I expect…

Have a great weekend
Ian Copsey

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