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HARMONIC ELLIOTT WAVE

Wednesday, March 14, 2012

Closer to a more decisive outcome


  PLEASE NOTE THAT BY THE END OF THIS MONTH I SHALL BE CLOSING THIS BLOG IN FAVOR OF   http://harmonicelliottwave.blogspot.com/ IN LINE WITH THE HARMONIC ELLIOTT WAVE BRANDING. PLEASE FEEL FREE TO CONNECT DIRECTLY WITH THE NEW BLOG ON WHICH I SHALL POST ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.  



I warned that there was still the chance of minor new Dollar highs and that’s what we got. The Swissie was a little higher than I normally see but within the boundaries of a wider expansion while the Euro hit the middle target within 1 point. Now, these are levels that can provoke a recycling. If they break then we move to the next projection targets and ones that should complete the pullback higher. Clearly the question is “which will it be?”

I think the answer is in GBPUSD. Its recovery yesterday was deeper than I would have liked but given the structural position is not unduly surprising, especially given the fact it’s GBPUSD which often has a higher tendency to erratic swinging moves. However, I would not want it to move any higher. Indeed, it has probably provided the right sort of area for the next extension lower… Therefore, given the wider expansion ratio in the Swissie (which is unusual) I am more in favor of the Dollar continuing higher… The “bad” news is that this should settle only the first leg of the larger daily consolidation and implies some messy trading coming up over the coming few weeks. The exception should be GBPUSD that has a larger decline to satisfy but not in a straight line…

USDJPY… well, that moved to just above my 83.01 minimum target and I can’t see that it has completed the move. While being very close the structure of the rally from yesterday’s 81.96 low doesn’t seem consistent with a final leg. With EURJPY still expected to make gains I feel we should allow price to develop. There are further upside targets that we should be observing so be aware of any reversal indications from divergences or topping patterns.

Thus, take care in the early stages today and be aware of the risk of further Dollar gains against the Europeans…

Good trading
Ian Copsey

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