Thursday, February 16, 2012

Crunch time…

Boy oh boy does it bug me when the set retracements are approached, the market bounces all over the place, looks like reversing but then doesn’t… and still cannot manage to break those key levels. We’re right there, within a Hadron’s particle distance of key Dollar resistances, the market flapping about like old cods and clearly not really able to commit to either direction.

I can’t say it’s looking that good either in terms of the Dollar resistance areas I’ve cited in the Europeans. I want to be mindful of other alternatives and could envisage slightly deeper pullbacks in the Euro and Swissie but the Pound really has very little wiggle room left on the downside and that’s concerning me. However, first things first, let’s see those Dollar resistance levels broken first and then judge the reaction… Otherwise the structure still has more potential for a complete reversal back to a bearish Dollar.

On a bullish Dollar front USDJPY performed very well yesterday, topped out at my resistance area and dipped down to my support area. This is another two-edged sword. On the one side any renewed strength above yesterday’s high is going to swing the balance to confirm the 33 year cycle low and provoke stronger follow-through. On the other hand a drop below yesterday’s low – and a bit more – would confirm a final surge to a new and longer lasting historical low. At the moment the bias remains on the upside…

Probably Asia won’t do very much and will wait for the European time frame to wait for news and it’s probably then when we should begin to see more definitive development. For now I’ll stick with a Dollar bearish view against the Europeans but with one eye looking over my left shoulder and the other eye over my right shoulder…

Good trading
Ian Copsey

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