Friday, February 24, 2012

And down she goes…

All best plans laid to rest… At least yesterday’s plans that now look as if I had over complicated the anticipated correction. It seems the market wanted to commit the Dollar to the downside directly and therefore the move lower is well and truly underway. I suspect that this could develop pretty directly with the Pound having faced a gaping hole should it slip any further but now recovering through the aversion to Dollars. This is going to require quite a sustained run higher in the Pound to reach the major upside target and therefore tends to slot in with the same in the Swissie and therefore probably the Euro too.

There is a problem I have for the immediate move since although I can generate projections we haven’t seen sufficient base development for the intervening projections for the smaller fractals that make up the larger. In particular the current move is very much clouded in darkness as it does have any specific target. I could point to the 1.3548 daily corrective high, and I do feel this will have a temporary impact, but otherwise it has been difficult generating accurate levels.

Therefore, keep your eye on the ball and the other maintaining a trailing stop that could produce some decent returns. The time frame for the final Dollar low, from a few sources I keep in touch with, appears to be in the middle of March.

The Yen has lost some of its luster, at least for now, and as mentioned yesterday the pullback is likely to be quite a long and arduous affair. That it failed to reach the ideal 80.50 target annoyed, but I can’t see any reason to see this move towards the 80.50-89 area for the while and expect further slow downside progress. It may slow the rally in EURJPY which I had thought would see a pullback, but the way it keeps pushing higher seems to suggest it means business in a more direct rally.

Thus, emphasis should still be to sell Dollars on pullbacks and maintain a trailing stop…

Have a great weekend
Ian Copsey

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