Friday, December 23, 2011

The year-end should see Dollar gains extend…

It’s going to be difficult to really see much happening today, most likely some early consolidation given that Japan has public holiday and later I suspect a modicum of Dollar gains but without there being any excessive moves. Being the last update for the year I’ll concentrate mostly on the more medium term outlook through to the end of the year and beyond.

Very clearly I remain Dollar bullish, mostly in EURUSD and USDCHF, both of which should see some solid follow-through over next week This will probably rub-off on GBPUSD but I’m not so sure that it’ll make new lows. There is perhaps a mild chance of minors lows but even if there are I can’t see them being excessive. Once this next leg higher for the Dollar is complete it should allow a modest pullback before the next push higher – maybe into the 2nd or 3rd week in January to see a more major high that should generate a much stronger correction into Spring time.

It would appear that even USDJPY has finally succumbed to the upside and may well confirm that we saw the 16.5 year and 33 year cycle low at 75.57. However, it doesn’t look as if it’s going to go mad just yet but overall should make consistent gains now. The impact on the cross? To be honest it looks like the losses in EURUSD are going to outstrip USDJPY as the cross doesn’t look that bullish right now. I have been quite bearish on the cross and I’ll remain bearish but the prospect of a firmer USDJPY will mean more care is needed for the cross.

May I take this opportunity to wish you all a splendid holiday season and a truly happy, healthy, peaceful and of course prosperous 2012

Ian Copsey


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