Tuesday, December 20, 2011

STILL looking for that extra push higher…

Well, that wasn’t much fun was it? However, all it did was delay the next Dollar leg higher by forming a complex correction so frankly the outlook remains the same. The positive thing is that the correction is extremely unlikely (and I leave a small door open since we are in that weird time of year) that we’ll see the correction become any more complicated. Hence today, Santa Claus willing, we should see the Dollar gains that I have been sitting, twiddling thumbs and waiting for.

Yesterday I made a special mention of EURJPY. I’ll do so again but more from the USDJPY side of the cross. The sudden rush back up to 78.153 (and was that really 78.158 to make a new high?) was an interesting development that appears to raise the bullish scenario again. It has started the day on a firm note and as long as it can break above yesterday’s high I feel the potential for this to become much stronger holds far greater odds in its favor. I’d still wait for that break. After all, it is ‘that time of year’ when snafu’s are common. However, if it does I think it’s worth following.

It would, of course, have a potential impact on the cross although with EURUSD expected to be heading in the opposite direction the cross may well have another day buried in introspection. Otherwise any failure to make the upward break could keep USDJPY in a consolidation to allow the cross to dip to the target areas I indicated yesterday.

Therefore, the summary for today is – watch for Dollar gains but don’t get too carried away as we’re due a longer lasting pullback through to next week at the very least.

Good luck
Ian Copsey


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