Monday, December 12, 2011

Looks like a dull start to the week

It was all fun on Friday’s roller coaster, the Dollar initially pushing higher only to whip back lower but in a move that couldn’t be sustained. It has brought with it the probability of further consolidation until the market begins to settle on one direction, a decision that it found far too difficult to make during the entirety of last week. However, I do feel it will happen this week and from the moves I have seen I find it hard to be Dollar bullish…

I note that EURJPY appears to have shrugged off the losses it made and as long as it can maintain current levels for a while longer the next move should be higher. That should be reflected in USDJPY or EURUSD … or even both… The Dollar Index still looks bearish to me and it’s more a matter of whether it has seen its corrective high or has one more blip higher to come.

On USDJPY, it remains with a degree of ambiguity. I can repeat the statement about the impending 16.5 and 33 year cycle lows but I’m sure you’re aware of this by now and that we’re in the broad timing window for the Dollar to begin a long recovery. The current ambiguity is just stretching the potential for one more decline. It’s more a matter of “when” and not “if.”

So treat the first half of the day with care given the risk of continued whippy sideways consolidation but be prepared to start looking for a break lower in the Dollar to come either by the second half or just into tomorrow…

As always in December… take care and be aware…

Have a profitable week
Ian Copsey


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