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HARMONIC ELLIOTT WAVE

Tuesday, December 13, 2011

All mixed up and muddled


Whew… The analysis normally takes around 2 hours… today was 4 hours… Clearly that implies there are a multitude of anomalies between not only the currency pairs but also the implications of yesterday’s breaks on the medium & long-term structures. In EURUSD and USDCHF there are possible recycling possibilities but even that would generate conflict in the longer-term structures. However, that is not an uncommon feature during December trading. What it does mean is that additional care and observation is required from this point forward when effectively we only have around 5-6 more trading days with any meaningful liquidity… and even that can be a stretch of the imagination…

The most obvious anomaly was the refusal for GBPUSD to extend losses below 1.5525 while the other two Europeans saw the Dollar push to new highs taking the Dollar Index very close to its recent high. Until 1.5525 GBPUSD breaks it can still reach 1.6019… although I have to say that is quite a task. However, if yesterday’s Dollar highs in the other two are not broken by any significant amount then a recycling may well develop. Of course the problem will then be working out how this fits into the daily structure…

AUDUSD and EURJPY have moved to the limits of their respective pullbacks and frankly in a manner that doesn’t raise the strongest confidence. For the cross, much will depend on USDJPY which is also tiptoeing along a fine line between bullish & bearish…

All in all, given the confusion raised by yesterday’s moves, I don’t have the greatest confidence in much at all. This tends to point to our need to tiptoe through the resultant debris generated by yesterday’s fracas until stronger confirmations of a return to normality return…

As always in December… take care and be aware…

Good luck
Ian Copsey

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