Friday, November 4, 2011

Not quite out of the woods yet… but close…

If you go down to the woods today… you’ll still see the bears but may also be able to hear the bulls in the adjacent field snorting and not that far away…

There is still a sense of a delicate balance between the two opposing daily structures but yesterday’s developments certainly saw a sense of waning fear and a more nervous calmness begin to pervade the markets. Still, the short term structures seen since the Dollar highs have not been sufficient to totally rule out removing twitchy fingers hovering above the ”HELL, I’VE GOT TO BUY QUICK!” button, but I do see a greater potential now for Dollar losses to resume. One pair I have been watching closely has been USDCHF that I felt had completed its pullback at 0.8960 which implied the next move must be back down below the 0.8567 low… The fact that EURUSD and GBPUSD stabilized does seem to be a positive factor.

Still, there’s a way to go to confirm those latter two but the structures from yesterday’s lows in both have been constructive. It’s now a matter of the rest of the structure working its way through in a similar positive manner. We could find that today, while extending that positive structure may still not quite break the potential bearishness but as long as it’s made further ground I’ll feel a little more comfortable with the Dollar bearish outcome.

Until then we still have to be on our guard. Other than USDCHF there is still room for another bout of Dollar buying without breaking the larger Dollar bearish structure and if anything that is the factor that should warn us to retain that eye looking back over our shoulders so that we don’t get caught out. All being well, though, the weekend could calm the nerves more and see the Dollar extend its losses – and with some acceleration next week…

Have a great weekend
Ian Copsey


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