Wednesday, November 23, 2011

More of the same… kinda…

With tomorrow being Thanksgiving the next report will be on Friday

The expectation of consolidation proved correct yesterday. There appeared little interest from the market to push the boat in either direction and to be honest I can’t see there being any change today, amplified by the fact that tomorrow is Thanksgiving and the potential for some to take long weekends.

However, I would just raise one potential risk, not that it takes us out of consolidation but instead widening the range. Yesterday I highlighted the chance for GBPUSD and AUDUSD to make minor new lows. The Aussie couldn’t manage to correct to the area I would expect to generate another leg lower. However, in contrast GBPUSD slightly exceeded its expected pullback and did make target… well, it stalled 2 points short. Now, that target implies a deeper pullback and therefore I feel there may be a mild risk that we could see the overall consolidation range widen, even for EURUSD and USDCHF. Therefore, bear this in mind for the day…

USDJPY rallied as expected but it was always going to be tough to know where it would stall. It did so a little under the last spike high and has turned down. Here we have to take care. It has corrected enough to see the next leg lower but at the same time there’s nothing to stop it extending its correction… Therefore I suggest leaving well alone until range break.

Take it easy today…

Happy Thanksgiving
Ian Copsey


No comments:

Post a Comment