Wednesday, October 5, 2011

Someone’s been watching my video…

The Dollar made only modest headway yesterday and then got spooked by Bernanke’s tête-à-tête with Congress it seems. Then the S&P stalled micro-points below the critical 1,076 support I outlined in my video introducing Harmonic Elliott Wave. (See: Actually, it spooked me too as I have turned bearish…

So has the Dollar found a high? Have the U.S. indices found a low? I find that hard to work with right now. The Dollar’s momentum still looks bullish. The U.S. indices’ momentum still looks bearish. The Asian indices have broken lower and while I haven’t made a detailed and thorough analysis of the European indices my impression is bearish there too – but perhaps not as strongly as the implied losses in the States.

Well, perhaps the prudent approach is to be aware of the situation and there may be risk of some consolidation until the market settles, but for the moment I still feel the Dollar has the upper hand and global equity markets the … errr… lower hand.

We need a little more confirmation but I feel the correction in the Dollar is probably seen its extreme. It could just resume the underlying rally but, as I mentioned, be aware of the risk of a consolidation before the Dollar can follow-through.

One last word about USDJPY … strange… I still see EURJPY as bearish so can’t see USDJPY being that strong. I’d prefer bearish but the structure has become exceptionally complex and needs a shake out to generate the next stronger move…

Good luck
Ian Copsey


No comments:

Post a Comment