Thursday, October 20, 2011

Dollar losses… but not quite as planned…

I actually woke up late last night and decided to have a peek at the markets. All looked good, projections being hit on the dot, all very progressive so I patted myself on the back for doing a good job and went back to sleep. First thing this morning I traveled to the office, (aka walking up the stairs) turned on the PC, booted up the charting and promptly saw chaos. Just about all retracement level that should have held had been broken and left me scratching my head.

So it’s back to the drawing board to try and make sense of the depth of pullbacks. I have to say I still prefer to be bearish. However, the options I see are that either the Dollar has more immediate downside potential than I had originally thought or perhaps we’re going to see marginal new corrective highs before the overall decline continues.

It’s going to mean that the analysis today will be more on the defensive side and given the wave relationships are a bit stretched there’s a certain ambiguity in some areas which is going to cause some potential weakness to support & resistance levels. It is, therefore, a day to make sure that trade set ups are valid & strong before jumping headlong into the midst of the fray while the light is dim and shrouded in mist.

The only consideration I have is that the Dollar really does have to resume losses strongly to generate any decent momentum to carry it on a bearish current.

Good trading
Ian Copsey


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