Friday, October 7, 2011

The Dollar heads higher today…

Please note that with Monday being Columbus Day holiday in the U.S. the next report will be on Tuesday

Yesterday’s market pretty much reflected the comment I made – “This type of market should carry a government wealth warning…” Not everything went my way, which doesn’t actually surprise me given the comment, but there was sufficient that did go right to suggest we’re just about done with the Dollar correction. Yes, there is risk of some minor new corrective lows today but for the most part all I see is a structure that is more indicative of the upside resuming.

Of course it’s non-farm payroll day so the potential for a catalyst is there. Equally “of course” is the likelihood that we’ll not get much in the way of a constructive foundation to identify entries through trade set-ups… The impact can also be exaggerated by the fact that we have a long weekend in the States and the consequent reluctance to hold on to positions in the game of pass the parcel.

There are solid bearish divergences in EURUSD, AUDUSD, and EURJPY while bullish divergences exist in USDCAD… What is now needed is break of the respective prior swing lows/highs to confirm renewed Dollar strength. As we move into next week we should find the Dollar reaching the targets I have been eying for this move and probably by the week after next we should see a top forming for a more substantial daily correction in the Dollar’s renewed strength…

Have a great long weekend
Ian Copsey


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