Thursday, September 1, 2011

Time to lie down and sleep?

Forget the drum roll… This market is becoming tedious…

The whole market is against me! Maybe I should feign the admittance of defeat so it can turn round and bite me in the backside. I mean, what does it take to do something with more intent? Joking aside, this total indecision with the Dollar is a time bomb waiting to go off. Once it starts, in whichever direction, it risks a strong whiplash of pent up emotion.

Which direction? Well, I’ll still feel it’s going to be a weaker Dollar. I just find it hard to consider that the downside has a completed structure. Make no mistake, it’s driving close to breaking down but for the moment the bearish structures remain in place. It’s just the sheer complexity of the corrective structure that is quite bewildering.

However, if it is going to end I feel it should be soon as there are a couple of break levels that aren’t a million points away. Could it happen today? Of course but at this stage I’d rather it proved itself. Just looking at EURUSD by itself I can see two options: either it remains above 1.4328 and begins the much awaited rally – or risks sinking all the way back to 1.4220-58 again. However, I feel that GBPUSD doesn’t really have that luxury and must remain above 1.6208…

Let’s just say, speaking from my bunker and covered in war wounds, that I still prefer a Dollar bearish outlook for another 1-2 months but my patience is running very thin. I’ll try an outline what to look for in terms of clues that will highlight one way or the other…

Good luck
Ian Copsey


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