Tuesday, September 27, 2011

Somewhere around betwixt and between…

Yesterday provided some decent price action but without either side really gaining any ascendancy. I feel it has cleared up quite a few question marks – not all – but should provide a better framework to establish the next move. However, the base assumption of a higher Dollar does still seem to remain intact but we have to work through this correction. Of all, I found GBPUSD to provide the least clarity. I could count the 1.5327 low as the end of a bearish move but I’m not so certain given the relative proximity of what I feel should be a final daily downside target. In comparison EURUSD has more room on the downside but has a certain ambiguity – as do all the Europeans – that the Dollar highs seen so far could also *just* still work within a weekly Dollar bearish outlook.

At the same time the U.S. equity indices have fallen short of breaking the August lows so maybe there is a “get out of jail” card that can still be played… I have to admit they look pretty dire, and the Asian equity indices certainly look as if they have tipped over the edge, but it’s never over until it’s over… Thus, for now let’s just see how they all develop. As far as I can see the U.S. indices have pulled back higher and close to their limits. Much more on the upside could allow them back track around the Monopoly board.

So for today I do expect the corrections that began yesterday to continue but we’ll need to closely watch how they develop – and that includes U.S. equities…

Good luck
Ian Copsey


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