Wednesday, September 14, 2011

Dollar gains to resume?

The anticipated consolidation developed yesterday. Has it completed? Well, if it hasn’t then I can’t see that it can last much more. It could continue for just a bit longer but I can’t help but feel that by the end of the day we’ll see the Dollar upside extend a bit further.

I did spend a while contemplating the larger structure, even considering the situation in the equity markets. What I can say is that I feel we are sitting on a fine line separating a much stronger Dollar/weaker equity markets. Technically I can see both sides and each implies quite a strong reaction. There seems to be no middle ground – the equity markets collapse and the Dollar rallies – or we see a truce allowing equity markets to recover and the Dollar return to its habitual softness.

Where’s the political will? Who or what will steer the path of those seeking power? After all, it is power that drives the human psyche…

The one thing that does look steady is EURJPY… That too has a small question mark over whether it has completed its correction. Possibly… possibly not. I do feel it would benefit from a minor new high but the downtrend remains intact and I can’t help but expect another leg lower, but one that could generate a slightly longer lasting pullback… However, a correction only. I still see this destined to move below 100…

Tread softly for the first half of the day. I feel that by the second half we’ll begin to see stronger directional movement…

Good luck
Ian Copsey


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