Wednesday, August 10, 2011

Disjointed, bedraggled and bewildered…

EURUSD up, GBPUSD down, USDJPY dipping its toe before it moves and USDCHF jumping off the high board… and U.S. equities performing with more restraint… Yes… it all makes sense… and if someone can explain that to me I’d appreciate it…

To quote Jonathan Cainer, a British astrologer: “the current square between Mars and Uranus. We've seen the worst already. The wave of anxiety gripping the financial markets is chiefly to do with Mercury Retrograde - plus a series of special additional factors” and that included the London riots. It most certainly is a tumultuous period…

The U.S. equity markets are almost over… maybe the drop is over… but I’d still fancy one more drop before they stabilize and recover. I certainly think we’ll see some greater coordinated move in Forex too. It seems more a matter of allowing the nerves to settle, for the market to take a deep breath and break the larger ranges… but which way?

I have long detailed by Dollar bearish cycles. The shuddering drop in USDCHF yesterday is very much reflective of this cyclic influence. I do feel at some time the same will happen to USDJPY, not quite yet, but I don’t think it’s week’s away… I have struggled to catch USDCHF but if my measurements this morning have caught the structure now, there is room for a correction higher… a correction only mind you.

And I do feel this is the same fate that will befall GBPUSD also… to a lesser extent EURUSD. The question is “when” and frankly it’s a little clouded. I wouldn’t want to open too much risk for a directional move until we have stronger indications. I think they’ll come over the coming week or so…

Good luck
Ian Copsey


No comments:

Post a Comment