Wednesday, July 13, 2011

Whoa! Almost everything’s going down… but probably not today…

I have to make this brief today as the analysis took some time this morning…

Sometimes I try not to get carried away and make alarming calls… I should have done yesterday… Today I shall repeat the restraint as yesterday’s declines were so sharp they exceeded the lowest supports provided in the report… I think we’ll be ok today.

First & foremost EURUSD is paint a rather drastic bearish picture. It does have further to go. However, I think today – possibly into tomorrow – we’re going to see some range trading. This comes from a tiny, blip of a correction earlier on in the bearish sequence which should mean this current correction should be much fatter and longer.

The British Pound MAY have completed its decline yesterday but there is some risk of a new low… take care there. USDCHF … hmmm… Potentially shaping up for a stronger decline but I’m open there. AUDUSD is also shaping up for some strong losses but like the Europeans is probably more likely to see a correction today. USDCAD… needs to rally again but I can’t rule out earlier losses to deepen the pullback.

Now, for what may be the juiciest opportunity to look out for USDJPY. I do have to be a bit restrained here but overall this is shaping up rather like the Euro. It’s almost as if the decline into the end of the year has finally started. It does need just a bit more of a pullback but then risks losses. What I am slightly less certain of is whether this extends losses today or not… When it does it’ll move down closer to the 76.31 low. What does prevent me from saying it will definitely happen today is EURJPY which itself does need a slightly deeper correction. However, with USDJPY and in particular, EURJPY the downside looks rather scary. The next move lower in the cross appears to be targeting close to the 105.42 low…

Good luck
Ian Copsey

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