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HARMONIC ELLIOTT WAVE

Tuesday, July 12, 2011

Well, that’s sorted out the Euro…

The triangle I had been following was not a triangle. The impact of the direct losses is actually pretty bearish… I may possibly be getting too extreme but I wouldn’t be too surprised if this reached the 1.2870 low… However, there’s much too much to sort out in between to get too bearish at this point. Having said that, it’s a possible target and we’ll now need the fractals in between to confirm such an excessive move…

Right now I can’t see that we’ve completed the first part of those fractals… so there’s still a little more to go on the downside before a correction and even then I feel there’ll still be another push lower after that…

OK, the Euro is the Euro, that wonderful, bodged political creation… What about elsewhere?

Here’s the scary story too… USDJPY does not look like a happy bunny. Equally, and probably obviously, nor does EURJPY. In fact, more than the individual currencies, the bearish nature of both seem to suggest quite a nasty fall. If I’m right on that it’s probably the best bang for your buck.

Elsewhere, GBPUSD is still on a downward path but a less aggressive one compared to the Euro so I still feel selling into pullbacks the better option. USDCHF… hmmm… just a bit mixed on that one. Daily momentum has a bullish divergence but weekly is teetering on the edge of extending lower – if that occurs then it could provoke acceleration lower. We really do seem to be on a knife edge here so best work with the larger breaks as I feel a more solid move should soon occur… I’m open to either direction…

The Aussie met its downside target but has struggled to muster enough strength to reverse higher… It must now hold above this morning’s low or it will tumble lower also. USDCAD needs to push above the 0.9740 area to maintain yesterday’s mild upward momentum. If it fails then look for stronger losses…

Good luck
Ian Copsey

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