Wednesday, July 20, 2011

Still some Dollar losses to come but perhaps not uniformly

Well… We did see Dollar losses overall but not quite as uniformly as expected with USDJPY and USDCHF baulking the basic moves seen elsewhere. I still see more to come but with mixed results again. EURUSD, GBPUSD, AUDUSD and USDCAD all look set to maintain their respective moves. I’d actually like USDJPY to follow-suit but there may be a little more upside to come before that can occur… however, that is stretching the structure rather…

One interesting point about all of this is that none of the above, perhaps with the exception of USDJPY (assuming it does what I tell it to…) and to an extent EURUSD, look like extending the Dollar losses excessively. A pullback appears to be required before too long and I do recommend watching out for the key Dollar supports in all.

I am sensing some continued confused markets still, more in the 1 week time frame maybe, that should prevent the Dollar losing out too quickly but should finally extend losses more directly once this episode is over. The most puzzling is EURUSD which still seems to have an apparent vulnerability after it reaches the 1.4696 high again. Therefore I don’t want to get too carried away.

Having seen the strength in USDCHF yesterday and being made aware of some very, very early shenanigans on Monday morning that were not reflected on the charts I see this as being bullish for a while longer though will probably be a little choppy in the process. Thus, the overall prospects look touch and go to say the least. Best take care in all this apparent confusion.

Finally, EURJPY is showing some strength. I’d prefer this to come from EURUSD rather than USDJPY else my outlook for the latter comes under threat. Again, I feel that if it does then it won’t be for long before the downside becomes more vulnerable. I do feel that it’s just a matter of time before it drops to new historic lows.

Thus, steady as she goes today. I don’t think it’s quite time for a massive trending move so be prepared to take profits when you have them…

Good luck
Ian Copsey

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