Thursday, July 28, 2011

Not quite what was expected but still broadly in line with the larger picture

It seems the Dollar losses suddenly faced a much closer block than expected… In some ways I’m quite content with this as the stronger projections were a bit more than I had originally expected while yesterday’s highs are more appropriate to the final targets I have envisioned. I’m also happier with this on a time basis as I’d like this Dollar decline to come to a conclusion for the reversal.

So while yesterday was not as planned the outcome remains the same although there’s little wriggle room left on the Dollar upside to work within. It does provide us with a bail-out area in case I’m being a bit too stubborn. However, I do a similar picture in GBPUSD and also AUDUSD. Actually, having seen USDJPY dip there’s even a possibility this could go down as well… At 77.57 it was really on the border line between a projection from the 79.60 high and a straight extension lower to my lower target closer to the 76.31 low.

All of these would imply a Dollar correction higher but probably EURUSD being more susceptible to much stronger losses. Here we have to consider EURJPY also. It has dipped which was a clear option and is also sitting on a fine line between one more correction higher and a drop towards 105.42… I have always thought this would really take hold only when EURUSD reversed lower – as I said, being the one that has the greater downside risk. Therefore the performance of the cross could be a good leading indicator.

So for today look for the Dollar losses - unless key resistance levels are broken – but be aware at all times from this point forward that the threat of a Dollar reversal is becoming stronger…

Good luck
Ian Copsey

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