Friday, June 3, 2011

Today looks as if it could be an unremarkable day…

Actually, for the most part, yesterday was an unremarkable day… The most interesting part was the apparent disassociation across the 4 majors and of course the anticipated rally in EURUSD right up into its target range. I don’t see the Euro getting that much higher and with hourly & 4-hour bearish divergences this too should see the Dollar beginning to make gains. Probably today Dollar gains will be the main theme. I don’t see it being a particularly rabid, gut wrenching rally but probably fairly consistent once it has begun.

GBPUSD and USDCHF probably have a little more work to do in their respective consolidations but we should see the Dollar making gains here by the second half of the day. I’m still viewing these as corrective and unless some unexpected event occurs the next few days should be broadly Dollar positive.

The only one of the 4 majors that is beginning to bug me is USDJPY. I’ve been favoring losses but the constant deep pullbacks are beginning to wear down my patience. I’ve also noticed a potentially bullish structure in EURJPY. I don’t want to anticipate too much in the cross since it’s capable of some horrendous, complex and mind-blowing corrective patterns. The fact that I’ll be looking for losses in EURUSD doesn’t really support a strong cross. However, if we see any further recoveries in USDJPY we could suddenly see a sharp move higher. Apart from what I see as a “safer” call in EURUSD any move higher in USDJPY could be quite sharp…

The Aussie is balancing precariously on a tight rope and we’ll have to see which side it falls… The break levels appear clear. USDCAD should see follow-through higher today before correcting lower…

Today’s free analysis is for EURUSD and can be found on

Have a great weekend
Ian Copsey


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