Friday, June 24, 2011

I’m just not convinced about much at the moment…

…except perhaps GBPUSD…

Now, GBPUSD does look bearish. It’s got a little more room for a bounce today but don’t blink too often as the risk is lower and I still feel towards the upper mid 1.50’s at least. The key here will be spotting the right stalling areas on pullbacks to take advantage with any risk being potential complicated corrections or recycling…

Elsewhere? Well….. Heck, I’m just not convinced just yet. EURUSD did drop quite a bit but from what I’ve seen, if it does go down then it’ll do it in style and I’m not quite ready to contemplate that at the current moment. I could possibly be convinced but I’ll wait for it to happen first. USDCHF, as much as it started its charge higher with gusto, failed just short of the first hurdle. I fancy it may manage it before long but I feel it could well retest the 0.8326 low first. In the meantime we’ll have to see how EURUSD reacts today.

Even USDJPY disappointed in some respects. It broke above the 80.47 resistance and stalled just 3 pips below the 80.67… then broke but couldn’t sustain the rally. It does sorely need to scramble back higher quickly else its support will buckle under the weight. The same could be said of EURJPY which still remains in the larger range, continuing one of its characteristic chop-and-change formations…

So, probably the stronger structure is in GBPUSD right now and perhaps this should be favored while the others take time to brush off the confusion and make their stance with more clarity.

Have a great weekend
Ian Copsey


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