Thursday, June 2, 2011

Dollar losses all but done… but probably one more high in EURUSD…

Yesterday saw pretty mixed results, some good, some not so good. Overall this contributes to the growing risk of the Dollar beginning to stand up for itself and attempting to re-assert its strength. Indeed, in GBPUSD, AUDUSD and USDCAD it did a pretty good job of it and this even brushed off in EURUSD by the end of the day. Against this, USDJPY and USDCHF resumed their losses.

So what for today? Well, I’ll cautiously go for further Dollar losses in USDJPY and EURUSD while GBPUSD appears due for a correction. I’ll even suggest that EURUSD should have just enough energy left in it for a new high but from this point on there is a growing risk of a deeper correction lower now. USDJPY is probably the one to watch as I feel this could still see quite sustained losses.

However, on the other hand USDCHF does seem due a pullback after its Kamikaze drop. I’m just a bit concerned about this one as while it has been declining pretty close to expectations the implications remain exceptionally bearish and almost too bearish to be believable… There is a rather juicy 4-hour bullish divergence so caution is warranted but it’s quite possible that the correction high I expect could rebalance that severely oversold situation.

A word on EURJPY… no new high and a sharp drop into range. This does have a complicated structure and I’m going to remain cautious. This pair has a handy knack of confounding with mega-ultra complicated range trading and I am rather suspicious that this may be one of those.

It’s another day to be aware of all manner of possibilities.

Today’s free analysis is for AUDUSD and can be found on

Good luck
Ian Copsey


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