Friday, May 6, 2011

Yep… that was the Dollar low…

Well… that’s decided then… It wasn’t the “Is it? Isn’t it” scenario I had thought it would be, and a hint of that came from the early deeper pullback than expected that altered the balance of the structure. When the break came it sure vented some fury in EURUSD… and it’s not over yet…

This begins a larger pullback that should last through to the end of next month at least. What strikes me when I look at the daily chart in EURUSD specifically is that this initial decline could come within a reasonably close distance from the final target. What that appears to imply is an unconvinced market and the potential for much of the next month to be mired in rather messy and erratic range trading. This could be a time to take a holiday…

The only exception I may make to the advent of a major Dollar low is in USDCHF. While the 0.8551 low was within 1 point of an exact projection from 1.1730 I’m not convinced that we’ve seen a valid structure yet. I’ll take this step by step, but it does look a little different. USDJPY could be another like that. Its losses yesterday were more than I had looked for but I think they’re enough for now but I fancy a new low following the current correction.

EURJPY has also effectively broken the tentative larger bullish impulsive structure. I won’t rule out new highs but it does seem to imply new lows later…

The Aussie was another that exceeded downside targets and like EURUSD still has some way to go… Indeed, that could even outpace EURUSD but it’s looking as if we could see final lows in this first move by early next week. It just depends on whether the Dollar drags its feet in the final stages.

Thus, for today maintain the Dollar bullish outlook with eyes looking out for buying opportunities on pullbacks…

For those attending ATIC in Singapore I shall be in the John Wiley booth following my two presentations (Saturday & Sunday) for book signings.

Today’s free analysis is for GBPUSD and can be found on

Have a great weekend
Ian Copsey


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