Tuesday, May 17, 2011

Not quite so straightforward…

Within corrections you can never take your eye off the ball… Somehow they always spring a surprise and dangle ambiguities and temptations to thwart what appear to be straightforward calls. Boy did I suffer from those yesterday…

In directional moves the projections and retracements have, on the whole, clearer and more definable relationships. Within corrections the propensity for targets to have been met becomes entangled in the much stronger tendency for indecision and whippy, overlapping moves.

Bottom line: We remain in a Dollar bullish correction. I don’t think it has found its highs yet.

Now, just where are we within that correction? Ah! Good question! Well, I think it’s more than half way through. However, there does seem to be a possibility that we’ll need some recycling before the gains continue. This is how I shall approach the outlook today, but also keep my eye looking back over my shoulder in case the crowd triggers another push higher. Basically that can also be translated as: don’t fight against a strong Dollar…

As the Asian day starts the risk is for very little to happen as there is a bank holiday in Singapore. We also appear to be pushing Dollar resistance levels that could hold to allow further losses. The key approach should therefore be to acknowledge these important resistance areas and then look for confirmation of breaks, but keep your eyes open in both directions. I still don’t think this is a time for a trade & hold strategy so err on the side of safety and take profits when they come.

Once the underlying Dollar bearish trend resumes there should be more than enough opportunity for holding strategies but for now I can’t see that has begun.

Today’s free analysis is for USDCHF and can be found on

Good luck
Ian Copsey


No comments:

Post a Comment