Tuesday, May 31, 2011

More Dollar losses to come…

Friday saw the Dollar losses extend convincingly, predictably see a correction over yesterday’s U.K. and U.S. holiday and has extended those losses this morning. I am normally quite conservative in terms of identifying wave relationships and potential projections but from what I have seen so far this decline looks quite excessive in terms of projections and has taken me aback in some ways. However, given my longer term views to which I have occasionally referred, the structures I am seeing at this point tend to fit in quite nicely. That long term view is for the Dollar to remain weak into a big, huge, major, massive… (I think you get the idea now…) Dollar cycle low somewhere around the end of the year. Major cycle lows often generate spike lows and in terms of the amplitude of this cycle this does imply a rather shocking decline…

Well, that’s the basic premise I have been considering for some years now. I don’t want to get carried away too much at this stage, but as I suggested above, the moves so far do tend to slot in with this view. What is now required is for the structure to continue developing in the right manner at the right stage to continue to provide confirmation. Cycle lows in the manner I view them do have a span of deviation around the actual implied timing and we are already within that area so it’s important to remain vigilant.

Having said all that, within this particular segment of the move I do feel we shall be approaching points where the pullbacks should be come deeper before a (probable) deeper correction that should set up the next stronger follow-through over the summer months. Thus, be aware of when certain key levels hold or break which could warn of a slightly adjusted velocity in the decline…

Today’s free analysis is for USDCHF and can be found on

Have a profitable week
Ian Copsey


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