Wednesday, May 4, 2011

All up in the air…

The past few weeks had been pretty good, plain sailing and recognizable price development. This week has seen storm clouds form generating a far more choppy sea. The core underlying view that we’re close to a Dollar low remains but yesterday saw moves in one or two currency pairs that suggest that low may already be in place. Along with the general confusion in the other currency pairs these final stages in the Dollar’s demise has become fare more unclear.

In terms of extent the Dollar has reached levels which are already deep enough to satisfy the expect range of projections across all four majors. This increase in confusion, and possible disparity between the currency pairs, is a possible sign that we are close to a major low. It therefore warns us to take additional care from this point.

I still feel there is further upside potential in EURUSD. I can see potential for corrections higher in GBP & AUD. I can’t 100% rule out a new high in GBP but that’s now holds a much higher risk factor. USDJPY does still seem to require new lows. CHF may only require a minor low.

Drawing on the general correlation between the Dollar and the U.S. indices it does still suggest further Dollar losses as the indices reached support levels yesterday which should allow a further push higher. I should add that EURJPY, having broken the 119.43 support is now also at risk.

Therefore the general impression I am getting right now is that the Dollar can still be weak which should force lows in some currency pairs but this may not be uniform now…

Additional care is therefore recommended…

Today’s free analysis is for USDJPY and can be found on

Good luck
Ian Copsey


No comments:

Post a Comment