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HARMONIC ELLIOTT WAVE

Tuesday, May 31, 2011

More Dollar losses to come…

Friday saw the Dollar losses extend convincingly, predictably see a correction over yesterday’s U.K. and U.S. holiday and has extended those losses this morning. I am normally quite conservative in terms of identifying wave relationships and potential projections but from what I have seen so far this decline looks quite excessive in terms of projections and has taken me aback in some ways. However, given my longer term views to which I have occasionally referred, the structures I am seeing at this point tend to fit in quite nicely. That long term view is for the Dollar to remain weak into a big, huge, major, massive… (I think you get the idea now…) Dollar cycle low somewhere around the end of the year. Major cycle lows often generate spike lows and in terms of the amplitude of this cycle this does imply a rather shocking decline…

Well, that’s the basic premise I have been considering for some years now. I don’t want to get carried away too much at this stage, but as I suggested above, the moves so far do tend to slot in with this view. What is now required is for the structure to continue developing in the right manner at the right stage to continue to provide confirmation. Cycle lows in the manner I view them do have a span of deviation around the actual implied timing and we are already within that area so it’s important to remain vigilant.

Having said all that, within this particular segment of the move I do feel we shall be approaching points where the pullbacks should be come deeper before a (probable) deeper correction that should set up the next stronger follow-through over the summer months. Thus, be aware of when certain key levels hold or break which could warn of a slightly adjusted velocity in the decline…

Today’s free analysis is for USDCHF and can be found on http://www.fx-forecaster.com/DailyForecast.html.

Have a profitable week
Ian Copsey

UPCOMING HARMONIC ELLIOTT WAVE WORKSHOPS IN HONG KONG AND SINGAPORE

Friday, May 27, 2011

Well… it seems the Dollar correction is complete…

With Monday being Memorial Day holiday in the States the next report will be on Tuesday


Too stubborn. That appears to be it. The Dollar appears to have completed the correction from its lows and from what I can see from what has developed it certainly looks as if it means business in resuming the multi-year downtrend. Given that the correction has been relatively brief (in relation to the moves from 1.2858 EURUSD and 1.4231 GBPUSD in particular) it will be worth holding back from getting too carried away but if already short Dollars I feel running trailing stops would be a good idea. Short term momentum remains quite strong and if I believe what I’m seeing this still has a way to go. In the bigger picture the outlook is quite astonishing – according to what I feel I am seeing – and I never like to get carried away too soon. However, be aware that the implication I see is for the Euro to top 1.6036… First things first, let just take the current move and check to make sure the initial development supports that view…

All majors seem to be pointing to the same picture. We do have to keep in mind that this is a long weekend and therefore the risk is for a holding pattern over Monday’s trading. This should still see further losses over today therefore but there are some stronger stalling points coming up soon and I’ll try and outline the sort of areas that will provide the Dollar support for today.

On EURJPY there are two options, both basically bearish but one where we could see the holding pattern continue for today and maybe Monday and the other a direct follow-through lower. I suspect the latter since this appears to have the greater potential for continued direct losses over Monday. Therefore, take note of levels in the cross as these should highlight the (probable) USDJPY risk.

It also looks as if the U.S. Indices have made a final low and should rally along with the Dollar decline…

Today’s free analysis is for USDCAD and can be found on http://www.fx-forecaster.com/DailyForecast.html.

Have a great long weekend
Ian Copsey

HARMONIC ELLIOTT WAVE FORECASTS NOW AVAILABLE FOR U.S. INDICES

Thursday, May 26, 2011

Stubborn maybe, but I still feel the Dollar needs to rally…

My goodness the market knows how to make hard work of things… and that certainly makes my life even harder as I much prefer straightforward wave development. However, that is something we don’t have right now. Euro down, Cable up, Swissie down and the good old Yen watched in confusion holding a tight range…

So what next? Well, the rally in GBPUSD and the decline in USDCHF maybe rather a concern but I still feel there is a last leg higher for the Dollar. Whether this causes a deep correction in GBPUSD or new lows is something I’ll handle as it happens but I’m still quite reluctant to see the Dollar resume the larger downtrend just yet.

The U.S. Indices remained in a basic sideways move but still looks more corrective than a reversal higher and that also beckons new lows for U.S. equities but these are now due directly. That should mean that the Dollar must gain directly also.

From what I’ve seen of EURUSD that is most definitely indicated while yesterday’s highs remain intact. The problem I see in the shorter term is that GBPUSD probably needs to poke its head above 1.63 again – but I don’t see it getting too far. If these two European buddies see correlated moves today then that should mean that the Dollar should start rallying once the GBPUSD high has been reached.

USDCHF is also on the brink and must remain above yesterday’s low else the picture there will turn more directly bearish. This is also a bit of a concern. USDJPY needs to break yesterday’s range but upside does appear limited at this point.

EURJPY appears range bound.

Today’s free analysis is for USDJPY and can be found on http://www.fx-forecaster.com/DailyForecast.html.

Good luck
Ian Copsey

HARMONIC ELLIOTT WAVE FORECASTS NOW AVAILABLE FOR U.S. INDICES

Wednesday, May 25, 2011

That deep pullback didn’t thrill, but I still favor another Dollar rally…

It looked for a while that things were going to plan. The Dollar pulled back and hit my Dollar support levels, stalled and then pushed through. It hasn’t been by too much but enough to annoy, particularly in GBPUSD.

My feeling, particularly in EURUSD is that this is just a deeper pullback than normal, something similar to the recovery it made from 1.4047 but still made it back to the 1.4338 high. While I am basically on the lookout for a Dollar high I still feel there is something missing within this current move and either yesterday’s pullback is now complete or should manage only marginal new Dollar lows before the move resumes.

This tends to be the main underlying theme across the board, through USDCHF, USDJPY and GBPUSD. I would even add to that the U.S. equity indices which have performed since Monday almost exactly to plan.

Thus, I remain looking for new Dollar highs but also for these to potentially be the highest we see for some while…

Given the rather volatile nature of recent moves it does suggest a raised level of risk of being whipped out so take care.

Today’s free analysis is for GBPUSD and can be found on http://www.fx-forecaster.com/DailyForecast.html.

Good luck
Ian Copsey

HARMONIC ELLIOTT WAVE FORECASTS NOW AVAILABLE FOR U.S. INDICES

Tuesday, May 24, 2011

Still more Dollar gains to come…

The Dollar started the week on a very strong note, in particular against the Euro which dived in pretty much straight line to just under 1.40 before pulling back. I really can’t see the correction lasting too much longer – perhaps into European trading – before the downside extends further. This does look like dragging the other Europeans behind it so the general Dollar strength should spread its impact across the entire range of currency pairs once again.

However, I feel after this next drop the move should slow down considerably. I imagine the final low could well occur by Wednesday or if the correction is very slow, then by Thursday. I’ll reiterate my belief that this will provide the final Dollar high before the underlying weekly downtrend should resume. I would not be too surprised if this next daily decline is quite sharp. I’ll hold off from a definite call on that but we’ll have to see how it begins.

Again, as mentioned yesterday the Dollar strength had its impact on the U.S. Indices which themselves are in a correction before another rally to new highs. Thus the two appear to be quite well correlated for the moment. The Indices are due another drop tonight followed by a pullback ahead of losses to the final corrective target.

Even USDJPY looks as if it has legs to move higher too though I feel this may top out a little earlier. It’s difficult to tell as recently this has labored in both directions. However, once this does top out it is in the same position as the Europeans in looking for sustained losses.

USDCAD is also in its last leg higher while AUDUSD is still expected to extend losses…

Today’s free analysis is for EURUSD and can be found on http://www.fx-forecaster.com/DailyForecast.html.

Good luck
Ian Copsey

HARMONIC ELLIOTT WAVE FORECASTS NOW AVAILABLE FOR U.S. INDICES

Monday, May 23, 2011

It certainly looks like we should see the Dollar rally again…

The final moves higher in EURUSD and GBPUSD can hardly be called text book, but both just managed to reach their last swing highs as expected and have turned lower with some gusto. This is the decline I had initially thought may be occurring a week ago before we saw the corrections recycle. As far as I can see this should herald follow-through to new lows, the question being how far and how quickly. Final moves can have a tendency to become quite complicated and therefore quite whippy – note the final stages of both EURUSD and GBPUSD into the end of last week…

This should also fit in with an extension in the pullback in USDCHF which bounced nicely from the 0.8748 support on Friday. A confluence of these three reaching their respective targets may well be a good signal for a larger Dollar selling opportunity later this week – something I feel could be quite a solid affair.

What does still hang in the balance is USDJPY. I did begin to have thoughts of a stronger rally. Well I still do, but the question is just how far. I’m talking the difference between a (brief) move above 85.51 or merely a pullback. For the moment it will be safer just to look for a pullback. This too slots into an outcome that calls for significant Dollar losses and by this I mean new Dollar lows – quite significant ones too. The only exception will be GBPUSD that is still in a pullback to the drop from 2.1160.

The interesting thing to note is that the U.S. Indices are also pointing to a similar outcome. They do still seem to be within a downward correction but are due to rally again once these lows have been established and to a new high in the rally from the 2009 lows.

Thus, to sum up the week… the general indication I’m seeing are Dollar gains/U.S. equity losses followed by what should be a sustained Dollar decline again to allow the Indices to rally…

Today’s free analysis is for EURJPY and can be found on http://www.fx-forecaster.com/DailyForecast.html.

Have a profitable week
Ian Copsey

HARMONIC ELLIOTT WAVE FORECASTS NOW AVAILABLE FOR U.S. INDICES

Friday, May 20, 2011

A mixed bag of tricks…

I have to admit that I’m glad to see the week ending. It hasn’t been a great one for the analysis. Corrections are always the more challenging structures to navigate and this particular corrective wave (from the Dollar lows), at least against the Europeans and a question mark over USDJPY, is one of the most notorious for complexity. The double edged sword for some of the currencies is the uncertainty over the depth of the pullback. EURUSD and to an extent USDCHF do have general guidelines so there are at least restricted limitations. However, this still allows retracements of between 14.6% and 58.6%... so we have quite a band to play with.

Have we done enough to satisfy the minimum? In fact the answer is “yes…” Do I think we’ve completed the pullback? I can’t see too much corroborating evidence… But I wouldn’t say “definitely not.”

Indeed, for the moment I’m sticking with my view that the Dollar should resume gains. However, the break levels that would raise the stakes that the European lows are in place are very close. There are also some rather conflicting signals developing too which have raised my concern along with the strain being put on structural relationships. In particular yesterday’s strength in GBPUSD does raise the potential for it to have completed a full correction from the 1.6745 high. It is just a “potential” at this stage as there is an alternative interpretation which would suggest we are just seeing a recycling higher within a more complex intermediate bearish correction…

Thus, having had a bad week (well, some parts were good – USDJPY has provided some good calls over the past two days and while EURUSD went a bit haywire yesterday the move higher was caught quite well – I feel more in the mood to look for moves to confirm structure before hanging my hat on one view.

Therefore, maintain focus on the structure that should occur – and be aware of a divergence from that to judge the final outcome.

Today’s free analysis is for AUDUSD and can be found on http://www.fx-forecaster.com/DailyForecast.html.

Have a great weekend
Ian Copsey

HARMONIC ELLIOTT WAVE FORECASTS NOW AVAILABLE FOR U.S. INDICES

Thursday, May 19, 2011

The Dollar should resume its corrective gains soon

There was a mixed bag of results yesterday. The key element through them all was that key Dollar supports remain intact. EURUSD rallied as expected, USDCHF pressured its support which held well while GBPUSD actually caved in and resumed its decline more directly than expected. Probably it’s GBPUSD that has led the way this time and today should sort out the remainder to provide the Dollar with all round strength. Indeed, the only major currency I can see which has a little Dollar downside left is EURUSD and that appears pretty close to its peak now so I’ll be expecting losses to develop by the end of the day.

Just to add a little more in the larger picture, while I am expecting the Dollar to resume its corrective rally, I feel the word “corrective” needs to be stressed. I can’t see an awfully big move coming up and have Dollar resistance levels not a million points away… Therefore, I don’t think this is a time for expecting a strong trending move. Indeed, if I am right in looking for a final wave higher for the Dollar we’ll have to be aware of some choppy resolution which often accompanies such terminal moves. Therefore, take care.

I should add an additional note on USDJPY and its cross. I began to feel there may be an argument for greater strength. Its early upside failure yesterday has dented that considerably but still the upside is currently the favored side and it should be more a question of just where this pullback stalls. EURJPY also made gains but appears to have taken a structure that is more choppy and therefore probably a corrective one. There may be some more upside to come but the risks for increased choppiness is increasing.

AUDUSD looks to have topped out for now and should therefore resume losses soon. USDCAD may have a little more in a correction lower but this too should enter its final corrective leg higher soon.

Today’s free analysis is for USDCAD and can be found on http://www.fx-forecaster.com/DailyForecast.html.

Good luck
Ian Copsey

HARMONIC ELLIOTT WAVE FORECASTS NOW AVAILABLE FOR U.S. INDICES

Wednesday, May 18, 2011

Further Dollar losses against the Europeans expected today

Yesterday proved quite interesting as it began to provide a little more information about the types of movement being seen across the board. There was even a potential surprise package amongst them all in USDJPY. I’ll remain cautious for now as the same structure has two possible outcomes, one being a stronger rally and the other a correction. However, both indicate further gains and it will be just where the next rally stalls that may provide greater insight. Given that even EURJPY has mimicked this ambiguous (though still bullish) structure we shall have two areas to observe to provide the clue as to the degree of strength seen.

Otherwise the Europeans appear to have subsided into slow motion, or so it appears. It could still hold a potential trap but the break levels appear to be fairly well defined so we can work with the outlook of Dollar losses until proven incorrect. However, the position within which each currency pair finds itself is different it seems so some due care & attention is required. Certainly a degree of independence across the three will be beneficial as each has its own structure to navigate. At this point I feel EURUSD has the greater upside potential in a recycling higher. GBPUSD on the other hand appears to be within a choppy upward correction. USDCHF is having to carefully tiptoe delicately around the limited downside which may well cause some choppy upward correction and yet another decline that should limit the break below the previous low.

The point to note here is that the Europeans are still within a corrective phase before further Dollar gains can be made. Therefore, at this point I don’t think we’re seeing the larger Dollar bear trend resume. That still seems to require another poke higher still.

On a side note, it is interesting to see the U.S. Equity Indices breaking down in line with expectations. They still have a little further to go though will be due a mild pullback before too long. However, once they have found their respective targets the basic uptrend should resume. Ideally the high in the Dollar should occur quite close to the timing of the low in the Indices.

Today’s free analysis is for GBPUSD and can be found on http://www.fx-forecaster.com/DailyForecast.html.

Good luck
Ian Copsey

HARMONIC ELLIOTT WAVE FORECASTS NOW AVAILABLE FOR U.S. INDICES

Tuesday, May 17, 2011

Not quite so straightforward…

Within corrections you can never take your eye off the ball… Somehow they always spring a surprise and dangle ambiguities and temptations to thwart what appear to be straightforward calls. Boy did I suffer from those yesterday…

In directional moves the projections and retracements have, on the whole, clearer and more definable relationships. Within corrections the propensity for targets to have been met becomes entangled in the much stronger tendency for indecision and whippy, overlapping moves.

Bottom line: We remain in a Dollar bullish correction. I don’t think it has found its highs yet.

Now, just where are we within that correction? Ah! Good question! Well, I think it’s more than half way through. However, there does seem to be a possibility that we’ll need some recycling before the gains continue. This is how I shall approach the outlook today, but also keep my eye looking back over my shoulder in case the crowd triggers another push higher. Basically that can also be translated as: don’t fight against a strong Dollar…

As the Asian day starts the risk is for very little to happen as there is a bank holiday in Singapore. We also appear to be pushing Dollar resistance levels that could hold to allow further losses. The key approach should therefore be to acknowledge these important resistance areas and then look for confirmation of breaks, but keep your eyes open in both directions. I still don’t think this is a time for a trade & hold strategy so err on the side of safety and take profits when they come.

Once the underlying Dollar bearish trend resumes there should be more than enough opportunity for holding strategies but for now I can’t see that has begun.

Today’s free analysis is for USDCHF and can be found on http://www.fx-forecaster.com/DailyForecast.html.

Good luck
Ian Copsey

HARMONIC ELLIOTT WAVE FORECASTS NOW AVAILABLE FOR U.S. INDICES

Monday, May 16, 2011

The Dollar recovery continues to develop

Apologies, it seems Blogger had problems on Friday…


Friday began with Dollar losses but ended with the resumption of the basic Dollar recovery we have seen from the 1.4939 high EURUSD. This still has some way to go but the final target doesn’t appear to be a million points away. Indeed, I can even see potential for the pullback to complete this week. While I did have a scenario where the highest point in the correction could be attained more directly, what has surprised is that it actually looks as if it could complete the entire correction. The more rapid recovery was one which I had originally considered as just the first leg of a more complex period of consolidation. From what I can see in EURUSD the structure for such a consolidation does not appear to be developing but instead a complete corrective structure…

The implication of this must be understood. It will imply a swift resumption of weekly Dollar losses that, if I have understood the longer term structure correctly, will imply new highs in EURUSD… Considering I have always suggested that the Dollar is in the final stages of a multi-year cyclic decline there is some corroboration in terms of structure and time. It also suggests that given the relative limited time for the larger structure to develop the reversal lower should be quite sustained.

What then does strike me is that USDJPY may well already be within its own downward leg. I had been looking for a recovery but assuming I am correct about the forthcoming Dollar weakness this seems suggest that USDJPY is already within the midst of its own decline.

But first things first… We still have to navigate the upward correction. This does seem to have potential into Wednesday or Thursday, at a stretch Friday if everything slows down, but that’ll be it… Certainly, as we get to the final stages the normal velocity will decline to generate more choppiness which is clearly going to take some care in navigating.

Today’s free analysis is for EURUSD and can be found on http://www.fx-forecaster.com/DailyForecast.html.

Have a profitable week
Ian Copsey

HARMONIC ELLIOTT WAVE FORECASTS NOW AVAILABLE FOR U.S. INDICES

Thursday, May 12, 2011

Fresh Dollar gains… or room for a pullback… or a bit of both?

Yesterday brought some fresh perspectives to the Dollar’s recovery. It wasn’t quite what I was expecting just yet and (quite obviously) a bit of a surprise. Given that this should be a correction higher in the Dollar the emphasis has to be on flexibility as the corrective position in which we find ourselves (in EURUSD and GBPUSD at least) is normally the most complicated and has a variety of alternatives, retracement ratios and structures.

Two things strike me from yesterday: the drop in EURUSD appears more like a resumption of the larger corrective decline. However, it has stalled just above the 1.4157 corrective low which is a normal area which can cause corrections. The rally in USDCHF has stalled around the 0.8877 resistance – just above. There is another a bit higher which is implied within a corrective structure from the 0.8551 low. The problem with this 0.8551 low is that it represents one of those areas that could be taken as an intermediate target within a decline, or indeed the end of the decline from 1.1730, thus implying a deeper correction higher. From what I can see the rally to 0.8883 appears more likely to represent the latter. However, we shall still need to watch that corrective resistance.

Add to this is the situation in EURJPY. We did see the losses I expected … but a bit more too… USDJPY stalled a little lower than my target and does seem destined for one more decline before it too, can join in the Dollar recovery. However, while EURJPY can stave off more sustained losses it has to remain above 113.54. The balance between a drop in USDJPY and the situation in EURUSD is therefore crucial. It does tend to suggest a pullback higher while USDJPY drops…

GBPUSD shot higher… and then lower… The big picture says lower. The question is whether this will be direct or not. AUDUSD also topped out just a little below expectations, but not significantly and this, too, appears to be on a downward track and should ideally retest closer to the 1.0536 low – but that’s due a correction too.

Thus, there’s plenty of room for some choppy moves today. Take care…

Today’s free analysis is for AUDUSD and can be found on http://www.fx-forecaster.com/DailyForecast.html.

Good luck
Ian Copsey

HARMONIC ELLIOTT WAVE FORECASTS NOW AVAILABLE FOR U.S. INDICES

Wednesday, May 11, 2011

More corrective price action appears likely

I was quite aware that yesterday could have been a mixed, strange day. Therefore, the way it developed turned out to be not so strange. In fact, I have to say that I was quite encouraged by the basic moves. Not all my retracement areas were reached at various stages but the overall development was one that provided me with a degree of confidence that the minor conflicts I could see may well be contained.

The biggest of these was in GBPUSD but it appears, at this point at least, to have done exactly what is required to remain in a tight range for today and tomorrow. Well, this is still to be seen, but the start has been good. For the rest the basic pullback in EURUSD, USDCHF and even USDJPY appear to be in line with expectations. I expect these to continue in their current choppy manner today.

One to watch is EURJPY. This stalled right in the support area I was looking for and has potential to have completed a pullback from the 123.31 high. I say “potential” as the corrective structure seen is one of those which can prove terminal but also allows one more blip. So I can’t rule out that “blip” but if it does happen it has little downside leeway. At the same time, while a feel a recovery is possible I don’t see this as being direct. That leaves it in the twilight zone between the two possible outcomes. For the moment it is best left alone until it confirms its break. Given that I can’t see too much upside now in USDJPY but greater downside when this correction higher is complete there is most definitely continued downside risk and the issue is one more of timing of the independent moves of EURUSD and USDJPY…

Finally, the rally in AUDUSD appears pretty corrective and doesn’t look to have much upside left… Watch for the downside to resume – an interestingly potentially leading EURUSD and GBPUSD as before…

Today’s free analysis is for USDCAD and can be found on http://www.fx-forecaster.com/DailyForecast.html.

Good luck
Ian Copsey

HARMONIC ELLIOTT WAVE FORECASTS NOW AVAILABLE FOR U.S. INDICES

Tuesday, May 10, 2011

The Euro low looks to be in place…

The Euro performed well, also the Pound too, but the overall outcome seems rather mixed. USDCHF didn’t manage a new high while USDJPY decided to up tools and go on strike. There doesn’t appear to be a convergence of targets being met which seems to leave the Dollar in a mire of vagueness and indecision. Perhaps not the Dollar as such but the market in general. Or maybe it’s just me…

This morning’s analysis provided some fairly strong views for most currency pairs in general. If there is any confluence of expectations it is that we should see some Dollar weakness but I can’t see this developing too far and may well be just part of a correction in some pairs. This even applies to EURUSD to a certain extent as it does seem close to an initial stalling area for a correction lower.

One that did raise a lot of question marks was GBPUSD. It reached the deeper of the targets I had been considering but only for a pullback. The natural target for the first move after the 1.6745 high has not really been achieved but the correction (in this case) should be shallow in this instance but already it is pressing the deeper of retracement ratios. For me to keep this larger structure it needs to move sideways for a while else it could begin to imply that this decline will be much briefer than I had anticipated.

However, at this point I have difficulty in accepting this Dollar rally as anywhere close to complete. The decline in USDJPY appears corrective, as does EURJPY, so my outlook does appear to require another more uniform bullish Dollar correction once the Euro has managed its own pullback…

I’m not sure whether the above description of what’s going on in my mind actually makes much sense other than some rambling. Maybe so, as I do find a lot of conflict in the current situation, but bottom line does appear to suggest a period of rather sketchy, possible non correlated moves so I would suggest a great deal of caution until some clarity appears…

Today’s free analysis is for EURJPY and can be found on http://www.fx-forecaster.com/DailyForecast.html.

Good luck
Ian Copsey

HARMONIC ELLIOTT WAVE FORECASTS NOW AVAILABLE FOR U.S. INDICES

Sunday, May 8, 2011

It doesn’t seem far from a Euro low now…

Well… that didn’t last long… what a fickle market… Just as it seemed the market only had eyes for the Euro it made a complete about turn in a game of pass the parcel as it suddenly became the most undesirable currency on the planet… While the Dollar made gains elsewhere too they were nowhere close to the extent seen against the Euro. But just as it seems it is the most unwanted, indeed should see the move extend further it has almost reached its target and should do so either today or Tuesday.

I have had a few people questioning whether this is the start of a move down to parity. It’s really far too early to start thinking about this to be honest but I strongly doubt it. As I have mentioned on occasions I have always been Dollar bearish into the end of this year – maybe slightly into next – and I still feel there are significant losses to come into the major multi-year Dollar cycle low. Thus this current move should be just a correction. Given the time frame for the Dollar to resume its rally appears to be around the end of June that actually leaves a lot of time for a deep correction and a second leg lower. The alternative may even be a long sideways correction. Thus we’ll have to be on our toes to observe how this develops.

As for today I still see Dollar gains developing across the board. There’s some risk of an early dip but then pullback before the stronger move develops. I suspect it could be quite strong when the follow-through finally develops. Thus, take care.

Elsewhere I also feel EURJPY is not far from its low also, and may even be the lowest it will be for a while… At this point I am still considering this as a correction lower. In the larger picture we could treat the 123.31 high as the final high but this structure doesn’t rule out one more high above 123.31. That’s going to be one to watch…

Have a profitable week
Ian Copsey

HARMONIC ELLIOTT WAVE FORECASTS NOW AVAILABLE FOR U.S. INDICES

Friday, May 6, 2011

Yep… that was the Dollar low…

Well… that’s decided then… It wasn’t the “Is it? Isn’t it” scenario I had thought it would be, and a hint of that came from the early deeper pullback than expected that altered the balance of the structure. When the break came it sure vented some fury in EURUSD… and it’s not over yet…

This begins a larger pullback that should last through to the end of next month at least. What strikes me when I look at the daily chart in EURUSD specifically is that this initial decline could come within a reasonably close distance from the final target. What that appears to imply is an unconvinced market and the potential for much of the next month to be mired in rather messy and erratic range trading. This could be a time to take a holiday…

The only exception I may make to the advent of a major Dollar low is in USDCHF. While the 0.8551 low was within 1 point of an exact projection from 1.1730 I’m not convinced that we’ve seen a valid structure yet. I’ll take this step by step, but it does look a little different. USDJPY could be another like that. Its losses yesterday were more than I had looked for but I think they’re enough for now but I fancy a new low following the current correction.

EURJPY has also effectively broken the tentative larger bullish impulsive structure. I won’t rule out new highs but it does seem to imply new lows later…

The Aussie was another that exceeded downside targets and like EURUSD still has some way to go… Indeed, that could even outpace EURUSD but it’s looking as if we could see final lows in this first move by early next week. It just depends on whether the Dollar drags its feet in the final stages.

Thus, for today maintain the Dollar bullish outlook with eyes looking out for buying opportunities on pullbacks…

For those attending ATIC in Singapore I shall be in the John Wiley booth following my two presentations (Saturday & Sunday) for book signings.

Today’s free analysis is for GBPUSD and can be found on http://www.fx-forecaster.com/DailyForecast.html.

Have a great weekend
Ian Copsey

HARMONIC ELLIOTT WAVE FORECASTS NOW AVAILABLE FOR U.S. INDICES

Thursday, May 5, 2011

Was that the Dollar low I’ve been looking for?

Yet another messy day, confused moves and very confusing structure. The most interesting parts of all that mess were the 1.4939 EURUSD high and 0.8551 USDCHF low. Both of these levels are indicated by terminal projection ratios in the Dollar declines from 1.2858 EURUSD and 1.1730 USDCHF respectively. Both were valid to within a 3 point variance and therefore stick out like a sore thumb. However, the problem I have with these is not the level but the structure leading to them. I find it very hard to accept that these were the final Dollar lows.

However, given the risk that we’ve seen highs in GBPUSD and AUDUSD I have to acknowledge the possibility and therefore need to find supporting evidence and preferably a break level that would raise the alarm a little more strongly. It does look as if we’ll see some Dollar gains today and just how far these move – particularly in EURUSD – could provide a better clue. It should mean a break below the 1.4754 low – by how much will be the crucial issue.

There are bearish divergences in EURUSD now across the board from hourly through weekly charts. I can’t say the same about USDCHF however which only has a weekly bullish divergence. These were present in AUDUSD. In GBPUSD there was a daily bearish divergence but not weekly.

Therefore, in general, given the rather erratic nature of moves we have been suffering over the past 2 weeks the same message as yesterday remains valid. Take care and if in doubt, don’t open any risk. In particular take note of EURUSD as this does seem to have a quite clear break level that would send it tumbling.

For those of you in Asia please note that I shall be in Singapore over the weekend to present an introduction to Harmonic Elliott Wave at the ATIC conference.

Today’s free analysis is for USDCHF and can be found on http://www.fx-forecaster.com/DailyForecast.html.

Good luck
Ian Copsey

HARMONIC ELLIOTT WAVE FORECASTS NOW AVAILABLE FOR U.S. INDICES

Wednesday, May 4, 2011

All up in the air…

The past few weeks had been pretty good, plain sailing and recognizable price development. This week has seen storm clouds form generating a far more choppy sea. The core underlying view that we’re close to a Dollar low remains but yesterday saw moves in one or two currency pairs that suggest that low may already be in place. Along with the general confusion in the other currency pairs these final stages in the Dollar’s demise has become fare more unclear.

In terms of extent the Dollar has reached levels which are already deep enough to satisfy the expect range of projections across all four majors. This increase in confusion, and possible disparity between the currency pairs, is a possible sign that we are close to a major low. It therefore warns us to take additional care from this point.

I still feel there is further upside potential in EURUSD. I can see potential for corrections higher in GBP & AUD. I can’t 100% rule out a new high in GBP but that’s now holds a much higher risk factor. USDJPY does still seem to require new lows. CHF may only require a minor low.

Drawing on the general correlation between the Dollar and the U.S. indices it does still suggest further Dollar losses as the indices reached support levels yesterday which should allow a further push higher. I should add that EURJPY, having broken the 119.43 support is now also at risk.

Therefore the general impression I am getting right now is that the Dollar can still be weak which should force lows in some currency pairs but this may not be uniform now…

Additional care is therefore recommended…

Today’s free analysis is for USDJPY and can be found on http://www.fx-forecaster.com/DailyForecast.html.

Good luck
Ian Copsey

HARMONIC ELLIOTT WAVE FORECASTS NOW AVAILABLE FOR U.S. INDICES

Tuesday, May 3, 2011

… and I’m still looking for the Dollar to correct higher…

What a nasty mess of a day… and almost a complete failure in yesterday’s analysis. Normally that suggests I need to completely change tack and adjust the overall outlook but at this stage I feel yesterday’s confusion is probably more a reflection of corrective price action. It is… well… a bit of a mess.

The bottom line remains the same. I feel we are within reach of what should be a final decline in some rather extended daily losses that should cause the most solid correction higher for the Dollar in over 6 months. You’ll note that I used the work “correction” as I am not in the “Euro goes to parity” group… yet… That’ll take a few years more after the next round of Dollar losses...

So currently I feel it’s more a case of minor adjustments and within that there still seems room for a modest correction higher for the Dollar. The fact that GBPUSD did not make a new high yesterday and perhaps strangely enough that USDJPY did not lose out as much as I had expected, does support the case. However, there are still some potential minor shenanigans as I’d still prefer USDJPY and USDCHF to make minor new lows before their pullbacks.

Interestingly, I note that the U.S. Indices topped out in the areas I had suggested and do need to extend their minor corrections over today & possibly into tomorrow before they take another step higher towards their key daily targets. Thus, the loose correlation between the Dollar and equities remains intact.

Thus, today is another day to take care. I sense there could be a repeat of yesterday in terms of the confusion and perhaps closure to the Dollar bullish correction by tomorrow. Out of interest watch EURJPY around the important 119.43-79 area…

Today’s free analysis is for EURUSD and can be found on http://www.fx-forecaster.com/DailyForecast.html.

Good luck
Ian Copsey

HARMONIC ELLIOTT WAVE FORECASTS NOW AVAILABLE FOR U.S. INDICES

Monday, May 2, 2011

I’m still looking for the Dollar to correct higher…

Friday did see a rather non-directional day though it was more in the opposite “non-direction” than I had anticipated. In the end it didn’t break to new lows against EUR & GBP but was weak against JPY, AUD & CAD … more significantly so against CHF.

So what next? Well, my preference is still for the Dollar to correct higher… I cannot 100% rule out marginal new lows in the Europeans but with the exception of USDCHF I feel the other two will probably remain below their respective highs. While I’m making an exception for USDCHF I don’t think we’re going to see massive losses from here. It does seem to need a new low but then a correction that should then fall into line with the other Europeans. I suspect we should see another day or two of corrective Dollar gains at least before it turns lower for what may be the final decline for around 2 months.

Even USDJPY defied my preference to dip to new lows. This is on a downward path but I still count it as corrective. Where I do see more potential conflict is in EURJPY. Yes, this should edge lower also but in the structure I am considering I feel that the decline is more corrective at this stage and my preference is for it to return to test last week’s high and above. This places a small question mark over USDJPY and EURUSD in terms of both expecting losses. It either means we’re going to see more complex range trading … or… I’m wrong about EURJPY also. This is certainly something to observe since it could generate a decent clue as to what’s happening.

Out of interest, U.S. indices are due to make a pullback over the next few days also – though I prefer to see one more new high first…

Today’s free analysis is for AUDUSD and can be found on http://www.fx-forecaster.com/DailyForecast.html.

Have a profitable week
Ian Copsey

HARMONIC ELLIOTT WAVE FORECASTS NOW AVAILABLE FOR U.S. INDICES