Thursday, April 14, 2011

Yesterday’s range trading has altered the landscape a little…

The rather complicated description of the conflicts between the currency pairs seems rather unnecessary in retrospect today. Perhaps the conditions I saw were indicative of something brewing but the final outcome was not quite as expected. In particular I’m looking at USDJPY which ended up making no break at all, but remained in a sideways range with slightly declining peaks perhaps warning of a descending triangle. Now that does alter landscape somewhat as any break below 83.46 would risk a deeper follow-through than the areas I outlined yesterday. Indeed, if this does occur along with EURJPY then the outlook would be quite bearish for both. However, it is a consolidation so perhaps it’s best to stand firm until there is stronger confirmation.

EURUSD couldn’t manage to muster up the energy to make another foray on the upside. The decline from around the same peak does warn of an initial dip today but I still see this as bullish. Indeed, when I look at USDCHF really failing to make much headway at all yesterday a bearish Dollar does seem to be implied… This does suit the overall view for this year but will mean some adjustment to the expectations in USDCHF.

I’d prefer higher in GBPUSD also. The only problem is yesterday’s narrow range which could threaten a minor ne corrective low before it can launch itself higher. However, considering the apparent need for the Dollar to make initial gains against all the Europeans this outcome does seem possible. Thus, don’t get too carried away with Dollar strength if it is seen in the early stages today.

This, Asia and possibly early Europe could see some fairly subdued trading, mild Dollar firmness, but as long as this doesn’t develop too far I still feel the final outcome will be a lower Dollar by the second half of the day.

Today’s free analysis is for USDCHF and can be found on

Good luck.
Ian Copsey


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