Friday, April 29, 2011

Time to be less directional…

Yesterday sorta went to plan but not with as much accuracy as I would like… I am quite certain that we have seen, or will soon see, a deeper correction higher in the Dollar. There were several tings that grated yesterday although it could just be that I always want perfection and that didn’t occur.

The high at 1.4881 EURUSD was close enough to 1.4884 to be considered a direct hit. What bugs me a little is that there was no hourly bearish divergence. Then again there’s no rule saying there need be… GBPUSD ended between two targets and equally had no hourly bearish divergence. AUDUSD also fell between two targets, did see an hourly bearish divergence but the decline hasn’t been inspiring.

However, if I remove the requirement for stalling points to be more exact but to be in the general vicinity, then the calls were pretty much satisfied. GBPUSD is also getting strained in terms of the final upside projections which already are being forced into the more excessive ratios so that if yesterday wasn’t the intermediate high I am looking for then those final stalling points are going to stretch the extensions even more.

On balance today I’d like to say that I feel the correction should continue. However, in reality I feel that while we are at these early stages it would be wise to be aware of the potential for the Dollar to dip one more time. I don’t like these ambiguous situations but then they’re not that uncommon so have to work around it. Overall I feel the continued drift higher for the Dollar is more appropriate to last into Monday at least before the final leg lower for the Dollar into the end of next week.

Today’s free analysis is for USDCAD and can be found on

Have a great weekend
Ian Copsey


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