Monday, April 11, 2011

This still isn’t quite going to plan… some adjustment is needed…

Well, my day wasn’t made… The Dollar keeps throwing curved balls that have complicated the entire structure but with weekly momentum very high and daily momentum displaying a pretty steep bearish divergence in EURUSD we should be approaching some sort of peak. Of course we still have to see whether that final high comes directly or after a pullback and that’s the current problem to tackle.

If I take any direction then it is from GBPUSD. I feel that this pair is finally emerging from behind closed doors to steal another base but I see this requiring a pullback before it can extend significantly higher. It does seem to need a new high today in the current rally but would then require a few days in a pullback before it can progress. It would be easy to call for a retest of the 1.7041 high but I doubt it’ll get anywhere close, but closer than we are now.

This sort of pattern when applied to EURUSD could well see a push into the low-mid 1.45’s followed by a similar correction and then a final rally towards the 1.5143 high but again, I don’t see it quite reaching that far and not for a further 2-3 weeks.

So what about USDJPY and the crosses? Very clearly USDJPY has suffered a few days with lack of energy while EURJPY is still pressing higher. First, on the cross, I do feel we’re approaching a key high. The only thing that concerns me here is that 4-hour momentum is pretty much in neutral territory. Certainly there is a bearish divergence but a mid-level reading in momentum normally allows another push higher. Let’s just say for now it’s bullish but I do see key projection resistance not far above current levels and we’ll see the reaction and keep in mind the EURUSD outlook. On USDJPY I still feel it needs another push higher but we are closer to key daily resistance levels at which, at the very least, we’ll need to take care…

With Forex being a bit on the complicated side I’ll just add a note for those following the S&P 500… the current contract has topped out as expected but should bounce from around 1,300-10 to reach 1,360-80 over this week – maybe into next…

Today’s free analysis is for USDCAD and can be found on

Have a profitable week.
Ian Copsey


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