Thursday, April 21, 2011

There should be mild follow-through today but we’re then due a correction…

Well, the Euro shot like a horse from the starting gates yesterday… The expected correction was so brief you’d hardly notice, but it was there – less than a 14.6% correction… The rest of the day maintained the rally and doesn’t appear to have quite completed the next intermediate leg. This it should be finished today but the expected high is then likely to hold for a while. Conveniently with the majority of the market on a holiday this slots in nicely.

The point to note here is that the move has developed so aggressively that it certainly looks as if EURUSD can reach the most aggressive of its upside targets above 1.50… It would seem this will imply gains through the remainder of next week at least.

What surprised was the relative laggard nature of GBPUSD which actually did perform close to expectations with the temporary top at 1.6380. However, this still has some way to go as well and potentially above the 1.6645-99 area I had been contemplating. Coupled with the decline in USDCHF that has quite some way to reach its own targets the prospect of the time frame may just stretch into around 2 weeks…

EURJPY was dragged higher by its EURUSD collar and looks quite healthy too. I suspect that we’re going to need USDJPY to play its part over the coming week or two also as it really failed to excite yesterday. However, where it stalled and the pullback do seem to be quite in line with structural development so while it doesn’t drop gains can develop directly. If the 82.17 low breaks then we’re due another leg lower before potential for a recovery…

So, for today I don’t think we should be expecting a repeat of yesterday but certainly some further Dollar losses but with less aggression…

Today’s free analysis is for USDCHF and can be found on

Have a great long weekend
Ian Copsey


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