Tuesday, April 19, 2011

Now we should be able to look for Dollar losses…

Directionally yesterday was correct across the board. The extent of the losses in some cases was somewhat beyond expectations but within the overall boundaries for the structural position in which I think the Dollar is currently travelling. Have we seen the full extent of the Dollar pullback? In the majority of currency pairs I think so but there may well be a risk of mild follow-through in one or two.

Therefore, I think today should provide a good opportunity to look for Dollar selling opportunities for the coming week or 10 days – that is in all but USDJPY. Along with EURJPY we saw the declines reach the sort of areas which should provide support. Here I feel there is risk of another dip to marginal new lows but with momentum showing signs of tiredness, as long as the decline is not excessive we should begin to see these two stabilize also and begin to recover.

That tends to imply that any initial Dollar losses against the Europeans may well be limited at first and then we’ll have to see how deep the pullback can be. This does look like the key difficulty we’ll have to overcome today.

There’s not really too much more to be said for now. I still suspect today could prove difficult in terms of identify Dollar extremes given we are still in the very early stages of the coming decline.

The twice-weekly (Monday & Wednesday) report for the U.S. Indices (DOW, S&P 500 & NASDAQ) is just about ready and launched on my website with the first report due tomorrow.

Today’s free analysis is for USDCAD and can be found on

Good luck
Ian Copsey


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