Thursday, April 28, 2011

It took its time… but the losses have finally developed… just a bit more to go…

I found yesterday a bit of a strange day. Everything looked fine & dandy in early trading but, then everything developed in stages. EURUSD corrected slightly deeper than expected, and GBPUSD also… but then the timing of losses became rather erratic. GBPUSD shot higher in the European morning leaving EURUSD behind. Then it took until the very end of N.A. trading to see stronger losses develop. By this time USDCHF also decided to join in along with USDJPY, these two pairs having spent the day until then moving higher.

It looks like everything has come back into a more coordinated effort now. This should allow a period of correction to the losses just seen but I imagine by European trading we should see follow-through to what may well be the lows of the week.

I had mentioned on Monday that this entire Dollar decline could end by Monday. That seems too short now. The lows I expect to see today should provide a modestly deep correction that should last until Monday at least. This should leave the final legs lower in the daily decline which will probably take the rest of next week now.

A general word on EURJPY and USDJPY… These both saw strength and the cross in particular which has actually been in line with what should be a move to new highs. The 122.00-28 area may well hold today for a correction but next week see extension higher. For USDJPY the early ending of the decline at 81.26 has pushed the structure quite firmly into a corrective structure. I still expect further losses which could be quite deep still but overall I still see it as a correction.

A final word on AUDUSD. I hate calling tops in this one as it always seems to hit back. However, there are bearish divergences in just about every chart from monthly down… I wouldn’t be too socked if today saw the final high… Take this with care. It’s in line with what I see elsewhere in terms of a top today. We’ll have to see how deep it drops…

Today’s free analysis is for EURJPY and can be found on

Good luck
Ian Copsey


No comments:

Post a Comment