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HARMONIC ELLIOTT WAVE

Friday, April 8, 2011

I am sensing we’re seeing a Dollar low… maybe one more leg to go…

I’ve not really enjoyed this week. Even the earthquake last night woke me up so what with the frustration in the market and lack of sleep I’m Mr. Grumpy this morning… So let’s have a go ending the week with a bang…

I think today has potential to be a significant day. The S&P 500 needs a pullback – not too far as it’s still in a move higher. I look at the currencies and see potential across the board for a change in direction. Short term divergences are beginning to develop in a more constructive manner and close to levels which I feel are important. I can’t say I like this week’s structural development but the larger wave structure does appear to be indicating turn areas. In the larger picture I feel this will be a correction only but a deep enough one to sit up and take note…

Even the normal ebullient gold has hardly displayed the persistent strength as seen over the past year. Actually I do feel there is just a bit more left in the upside in this but in the large picture there are a few warning bells to suggest a more substantial correction…

So… for today… I think we’ll see EURUSD and GBPUSD move higher but I don’t think these will get too much higher. If anything GBPUSD may have the stronger potential. USDCHF… well, its ability to remain in tight ranges these days doesn’t really suggest much movement at all. Even the Aussie seems to be finally coming to a level that should generate a larger correction. I still fancy a little higher still and perhaps this may drag on for another day or two, but the signs are growing there that a pullback is due. The same with USDCAD. By the time Europe come in 4-hour momentum will be providing potential for a bullish divergence. This is a tighter call but let’s just say the longer this moves sideways the greater the support for a bounce…

And finally USDJPY & EURJPY… Yes, here too I feel we have come far enough – well, maybe a little more but these are displaying signs of exhaustion too…

Come on… make my day…

Today’s free analysis is for EURJPY and can be found on http://www.fx-forecaster.com/DailyForecast.html.

Have a great weekend.
Ian Copsey

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