Wednesday, March 16, 2011

Take care – currency pairs appear to be taking their individual routes…

Again, another day to be brief. We have power cuts scheduled for around 2 hours time and I have to organize some paperwork in order to prepare for evacuation from Tokyo. I hope you can excuse the shortened report on this basis. There may also be a day’s disruption if we get to fly out over the next few days.

Yesterday was and awful day… The only pair that really worked well was USDCHF. This still has a little duality about it but momentum remains bearish. It’s now more likely about how much this can retrace.

Elsewhere, EURUSD still appears to be on track for the 1.4035 high and maybe a touch above. I wouldn’t want to get too bullish beyond that unless there is a significant break. GBPUSD went in the opposite direction and while a pullback is possible, on the assumption that correlation returns that the expected recycling in EURUSD could see GBPUSD fall. We just have to manage the interim to confirm this.

USDJPY collapsed also but hasn’t yet made new lows. With EURJPY following behind we’ll have to be cautious still. I’m not totally comfortable with what’s happening there and feel we need to watch this carefully.

AUDUSD also collapsed and seems to want more. USDCAD soared higher and has clearly completed its decline sooner than I had thought. It does seem to have the potential for another one of its famous “I’m going to go nowhere” moments…

Today’s free analysis is for USDJPY and can be found on

Good luck.
Ian Copsey


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