Monday, March 14, 2011

The entire correction may well have ended…

I would like to preface today’s comments by informing that since I live in Tokyo we do have a high level of uncertainty. Tokyo itself has seen little damage but the current threat is power cuts which may disrupt this service since the timing of future cuts is not known. I shall attempt to work around these to achieve the minimum disruption. I appreciate your understanding if the normal timing for the release of these reports becomes erratic – though will always be daily.

Well, the massive shaker has made its impact and has sent USDJPY tumbling. There is more to come it seems. However, the daily structure has now taken on a rather uncertain structure so I’d like to remain a little cautious until there are supporting structures developing.

Equally we have seen a much firmer than expected reversal lower in the Dollar against the Europeans. Here too, I have mixed feelings. There is potential for an intermediate consolidation but very doubtfully any significant new low below Friday’s 1.3750 low EURUSD. Confusion is added by both USDCHF and GBPUSD. The reactions in these two have been somewhat milder but also add to the confusion with USDCHF potentially on the verge of stronger losses while I find the strength in GBPUSD rather difficult to fit into a bullish structure.

I would prefer to start the week with a degree of caution to make sure of what we are seeing right now – whether this is part of a sideways consolidation or the resumption of Dollar losses which has always been the ultimate expectation. If this latter scenario proves correct then there is still someway to go but not in an aggressive and sustainable daily trend. That I think comes later after a bigger correction.

There does seem to be a tendency towards rather nervous and whippy reactions right now so do take care.

Today’s free analysis is for EURUSD and can be found on

Have a profitable week.
Ian Copsey


No comments:

Post a Comment