Pages

HARMONIC ELLIOTT WAVE

Monday, February 28, 2011

The Dollar still looks vulnerable overall but some care is needed at this point…

Friday saw a stronger than expected EURUSD but this Dollar weakness wasn’t reflected in its European buddies. I am pretty much in two minds at this point. I still feel there are Euro gains to be seen but on the other hand I am aware of the need for a deeper pullback before long as the intermediate upside targets appear to be getting very close to the ultimate target – back to around the 1.4281 high… I have to balance this with the need for deeper losses in GBPUSD now and a little uncertainty on the downside in USDCHF…

Within the Dollar decline so far I have attempted to identify the structure but it has been rather complicated and there are some signs in USDCHF that a deeper correction is due – still within an underlying Dollar bearish move and therefore acknowledging the risk of a possible pullback… In effect, it’s just the balancing of the shorter term development into what I feel should be the more medium term expectations.

USDJPY is pretty much in the same situation. It has seen a fairly direct decline and I sense there should be one more dip today but with the risk of hourly & 4-hour bullish divergences developing for a correction. This would be quite a healthy development and one that would prepare for a launch on the historic low at 79.70. This next attempt has a much stronger chance of breaking through.

This still keeps EURJPY is rather a finely balanced situation. I don’t really like the manner in which the drop from 114.23 has developed – in terms of this being a more direct break lower. Key support is not too much lower so we’ll have to keep this in mind – and probably that EURUSD has to be the one that takes it higher in all probability…

Coming back to the situation in AUDUSD I can also see that it has continued to labor in its rally to the point where I have strong doubts that it will be able to overcome the 1.0256 high by too much – maybe just above 1.0300 but does seem to be crying out for the correction to recycle back to 0.9803… USDCAD has similarly not quite developed as I had been expecting and actually appears to be a lot more bearish than I had been projecting…

Thus, take the first moves this week with care…

Have a profitable week
Ian Copsey

VIEW VIDEOS INTRODUCING HARMONIC ELLIOTT WAVE

No comments:

Post a Comment