Friday, February 18, 2011

As clear as mud…

Please note that since Monday is President’s Day in the States the next report will be on Tuesday

The Dollar maintained its losses but hardly with any significant follow-through. In some ways it would be easy to declare that this should trigger a more robust decline but I do still feel some hesitancy. If there was any single argument to the contrary then it may well be in AUDUSD. However, perhaps the strongest evidence of a Dollar low being seen is in USDCAD which has been following its bearish structure almost perfectly but now within a breath of establishing a low.

It’s a long States weekend. Another interesting point to note is the Dow Jones Industrial Average which has reached the target I identified in Monday’s Outlook. This resistance area at 12,335 is one that, assuming I am right, should prompt a 450-500 point drop. I have no idea what the catalyst may be but does suggest a certain reaction that should cause a shift in currencies also.

For today I have to take a balanced view. I still have a slight urge to remain Dollar bullish but we are right on a fine line between bullish & bearish and therefore I feel that a prudent approach is recommended.

Take care.

Have a great long weekend
Ian Copsey


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