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HARMONIC ELLIOTT WAVE

Thursday, January 27, 2011

If I have to hold my breath any more I’ll turn red…

I mean… I’ve been patient, noted other technical factors, identified the key Dollar supports, seen USDCHF find its retracement target and longest of all I even waited for the FOMC to make some sort of impact. What more do I have to do?

The longer this drags on, the longer I begin to smell a rat. The trouble is the rat is a rather Jekyll & Hyde character that would satisfy some currency pairs and not others. I still keep an eye on the Dollar Index which has also maintained itself above the 77.70 target I mentioned on Monday – in fact it bounced precisely from there – but much lower beyond the next projection at 77.45 would tip the scales to a larger dollar decline. This is my long term view. I just felt there needs to be a decent Dollar rally to finish a triangle before that happens…

So let’s set up where all this goes right or wrong… EURUSD 1.3750-60… USDCHF 0.9300… USDJPY 80.90 and USDINX 77.49… For the moment I prefer to take a more Dollar bullish stance but you may probably be able to hear my gasps. Ranges have become so tight it’s very difficult to give much of an idea how the minor wriggles may develop to point the way. We are probably that close to a bigger decision one way or the other. To be honest it won’t take too much of a nudge to tip EURUSD off the edge of the cliff. In fact, yesterday’s low would suffice.

So it’s a short outlook today. I made it that way so that you can hold your breath for a bit longer…

Today’s free analysis is for GBPUSD and can be found on http://www.fx-forecaster.com/DailyForecast.html along with yesterday’s Trader Package Review & Trade Set up report. (+115 pips)

Good luck
Ian Copsey

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