Thursday, December 2, 2010

The correction should continue today

I thought all was going really well for the first half of the day, with key levels being tested simultaneously across the Europeans but the anticipated resumption of Dollar gains didn’t materialize… This was quite disappointing but the Dollar rally hasn’t finished yet. The current pullback still has a little way to go yet but I suspect that by the end of today or perhaps into tomorrow we should see the correction complete for the uptrend to resume.

This should mean that by the middle of next week we should see the Dollar end its rally and generate a reversal. The interesting point in all this is that from the perspective of USDCHF the Dollar’s gains appear to have been a correction only. The medium to long term implications for GBPUSD and EURUSD are therefore rather unclear. However, at this point I think we should just be prepared for Dollar losses to resume by the end of next week and see how they develop.

USDJPY saw limited losses yesterday as expected, actually not even reaching my minimum target which was only 10 points below the previous 83.41 low… This should set up the final rally here also to coincide with the expectations of a return to Dollar losses against the Europeans. The difference here though, is that I will be expecting a move to new historic lows – possibly around 73.50-74.50. If I consider this move in USDJPY to be indicative of what may happen against the Europeans then the Dollar downtrend appears to be implied…

With the deeper correction in EURUSD, equally we have had the same situation with EURJPY. No new lows and a break of the corrective resistance I was considering means we are seeing an alternative picture, but still overall bearish. The correction higher has a little more to go here also but once complete should herald losses and potentially to approach the old 105.42 low…

AUDUSD has also benefited from the Dollar weakness. I’m a bit more mixed here with potentially a complete correction already, but equally with a structure that would allow one more dip… The upward structure is a bit messy so take care. USDCAD… what can I say about the Loonie… but just take care…

Today’s free analysis is for USDCHF and can be found on along with yesterday’s Trader Package Review & Trade Set up report. (+205 pips)

Good luck
Ian Copsey

FX-forecaster Trader Package now available at €20.00 pm
For MT4 users

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