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HARMONIC ELLIOTT WAVE

Monday, November 15, 2010

Basically I look for Dollar losses but risks are for mixed bag today…

For me EURUSD is basically the crucial currency pair to watch. Its low on Friday was sufficiently close to the 1.3577 support for me to call this a successfully completed pullback. It bounced nicely from here and if we are to see my larger bullish structure to be fulfilled this low should not be broken. This level should not be under-estimated as breach will threaten to break the entire structure I have been following for the past 3 months…

Therefore, we should be watching for gains to develop which in the early stages could take on a structure that would fit into either bullish or bearish medium term patterns. This means there is still a lot of work to be done to watch how the expected recovery develops. GBPUSD appears to have a more bullish outlook which supports the idea that we should be seeing Dollar losses. The pair that holds more confusion is USDCHF where I still see potential for gains. This is definitely more of a conundrum and may even subside into a sideways consolidation…

Friday’s pullback was to the deepest I had expected. Either this has to start powering higher or the rally will soon peter out. The way I see it at the moment is for gains to be seen initially but then we’re going to have to be aware of the pivotal area that divides the stronger bullish rally and a possible end to the correction from 80.23… There’s not too much assistance offered by EURJPY. It bounced from the higher support on Friday, and stronger than I had expected but this actually added an unknown ingredient that could still see partial follow-through higher only to reverse sharply lower. In the daily picture the cross is still poised between two scenarios. I do feel this may well point to what will happen in general to the Dollar but this current hurdle needs first to be navigated.

The next problem is that the Aussie is looking a bit soggy at the edges and I’m not particularly keen on a bullish structure. This adds to the inconclusiveness of the general Dollar outcome. USDCAD seems more to point to a short term consolidation…

So for today, with certain barriers to overcome, I feel we should see a Dollar negative day but be aware of the key Dollar support areas and Friday’s low in EURUSD…

Today’s free analysis is for EURJPY and can be found on http://www.fx-forecaster.com/DailyForecast.html along with Friday’s Trader Package Review & Trade Set up report. (+230 pips)

Have a profitable week
Ian Copsey

FX-forecaster Trader Package now available at €20.00 pm
For MT4 users

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