Tuesday, November 2, 2010

Almost there..?

In the larger picture things have gone exactly to plan. Yesterday’s highs in both EURUSD and GBPUSD were just about perfect so if this whole structure does as I feel it should then we’re in the last leg of the Dollar correction…

There are just a couple of slight hurdles I see that cause me a touch of concern so it is worth mentioning these. The first is that EURUSD looks very close to the minimum pullback – well, what I feel is the probable final low. However, the correction from yesterday’s GBPUSD high has not really made much downside impact and USDCHF appears to be hovering in the twilight zone, apparently heading higher but stretching the limits of its own correction.

To be honest, GBPUSD is in a position where a deep correction is not a necessity and I’m open to a fairly swift resumption of the upside. However, in USDCHF there appears to be more latitude for additional highs and perhaps of a degree that, if matched by EURUSD, would cause the latter a few problems. So let’s just say I am still very much bearish for the Dollar and I feel that probably we’ll see it resume its decline by the end of today but probably the start of this move could be quite choppy. Perhaps in all this possible volatility it will allow the Europeans to all be satisfied…

USDJPY… Moves like we saw yesterday don’t really help too much when identifying wave structures. However, there seems to be two alternatives; the first is extended consolidation and the other bearish… Where I have more uncertainty is in EURJPY… it just refuses to develop a more aggressive bearish structure but has declined never-the-less… It actually looks more bullish to me at this moment and perhaps that is a reflection of a consolidating USDJPY with a rallying EURUSD. Certainly, this triangle relationship needs to be observed with care until there is a more definite break.

AUDUSD… can resume the uptrend at any point but does seem to have a risk of a slightly deeper correction. However, the main risk is higher now. USDCAD completed a downward structure yesterday so looks as if we shall see a reversal higher…

Today’s free analysis is for USDCHF and can be found on along with yesterday’s Trader Package Review & Trade Set up report. (+0 pips)

Good luck
Ian Copsey

FX-forecaster Trader Package now available at €20.00 pm
For MT4 users

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