Pages

HARMONIC ELLIOTT WAVE

Friday, October 1, 2010

Yesterday’s bedlam is pointing to a potentially lower peak and larger pullback…

Just as everything seemed to be developing so well the whole structure I was following disintegrated… Well, perhaps not the entire structure but I suspect that the final push higher I had been expecting to come at a later stage appears to have already developed and maybe ended. The larger picture remains the same but the difference I now see is that the correction should now be deeper and last a bit longer.

The deep, deep 4-hour Dollar bullish divergences are evident across three of the four majors plus AUDUSD. The exception is GBPUSD. The problem I am looking at right now is the apparent shortfall in the final projection higher in EURUSD. Yesterday’s high is close to a truncated projection but doesn’t really fill me with great confidence. In comparison I can see a full projection in USDCHF at yesterday’s low and also the AUDUSD high…

To add to the lack of confidence is yesterday’s move in GBPUSD. I had already pointed out that there were several potential corrective patterns open to this pair and the one it took was one of the scenarios which it enacted with perfection. However, it does imply a correction and not a final high. Therefore, for me to feel a lot better about all this I’d prefer to see yesterday’s 1.5669 low broken… Then all will be in concert with each other and then we can plan the larger pullback. Until then, the other two Europeans as well as the Aussie have not yet actually penetrated the last Dollar swing high in the decline so we can’t state that the trend has reversed until then…

Even the low in USDJPY wasn’t quite where I had expected any reaction and this is bugging me too. Again, there’s no break of a swing high to reverse the downtrend but there are both 4-hour and hourly bullish divergences that indicate the downward momentum is slowing sufficiently to warn of a reversal higher.

This is compounded by EURJPY which has continued its precarious rally but equally doesn’t look particularly confident. It is still capable of edging closer to the 114.73 high but it doesn’t look particularly happy with its current position.

Therefore, today’s analysis is going to be pretty neutral and cautious to reflect the precarious balance of the current position. The difference I see now is more that a larger correction than I had been looking for is due but the question is whether there can be any further attempts to push the Dollar lower can be made before that occurs. Thus be aware of the growing risk of reversal.

Today’s free analysis is for GBPUSD and can be found on http://www.fx-forecaster.com/DailyForecast.html along with yesterday’s Trader Package Review & Trade Set up report. (+100 pips)

Have a great weekend.
Ian Copsey

I SHALL BE DISCONTINUING THE TECHNICAL TRADING WEBINAR OVER THE NEXT 2-3 MONTHS TO BEGIN PROVIDING ONLINE SEMINARS IN HARMONIC ELLIOTT WAVE. FOR THIS TERM I SHALL BE WILLING TO PROVIDE THE TECHNICAL TRADING WEBINAR WITH NO REQUIREMENT TO SUBSCRIBE TO MY DAILY REPORT I WILL PRESENT THE WEBINAR PERSONALLY IN THREE MODULES EACH OF BETWEEN 1 1/2 - 2HOURS FOR JUST $69.90. PLEASE CLICK HERE TO REGISTER YOUR INTEREST.

FX-forecaster Trader Package now available at €20.00 pm
For MT4 users

No comments:

Post a Comment