Pages

HARMONIC ELLIOTT WAVE

Monday, October 4, 2010

Nope… there’s still further to go on this Dollar decline but a reversal is still due

The market’s intent was confirmed on Friday. The Dollar has continued its slide and has foiled the hourly bullish divergences which in turn implied that the overall decline has further to go… It does also confirm that the intermediate pullback occurred earlier than expected from 1.3505 with the correction much briefer than the retracement I had been expecting. This means we are already in the final rally in EURUSD for this section of the larger rally which I had prior estimated to be around 1.40-1.42. Given the 1.3505-1.3386 pullback this lowers the final target by around 100-200 pips.

The decline in USDCHF is therefore back on target and also encourages the more bullish GBPUSD scenario I outlined on Friday. I doubt these targets will be met today but could by tomorrow – latest Wednesday. So the underlying risk remains Dollar bearish for now but do keep in mind that a deeper correction is due. I suspect the correction will last 2-3 weeks.

Now, USDJPY… I have been erring on the bearish side and at the moment this does still appear to be the case. I am also aware of the hourly & 4-hour bullish divergences that have developed which threaten a reversal higher. There is also the situation in EURJPY that needs to be brought into the equation also having reach 114.97 already. This has been the sort of minimum target area I have been outlining. However, as we have approached this target, while 4-hour momentum is still displaying a very mature (maybe too mature…) bearish divergence hourly momentum has broken its divergence and actually looks quite firm.

This does appear to imply that what we have seen is not the ultimate high. Given the upside targets in EURUSD the risk does still appear to be higher and is beginning to provide early indications that it could be far above the bullish targets I have been highlighting. If this is the case then we may well be talking about the 105.42 low as being a very significant low with the basic weekly trend threatening to reverse higher…

Whether this will avoid USDJPY reaching back to the 82.86 low is uncertain. However, it does mean that we should be open to a more direct resumption of gains so beware.

AUDUSD, probably also close to a high and I feel it will be lower rather than higher – but beware of any breach of the 0.8785-90 resistance. USDCAD is equally in a critical support area between 1.0134-76 that will determine the next larger move.

Today’s free analysis is for EURJPY and can be found on http://www.fx-forecaster.com/DailyForecast.html along with Friday’s Trader Package Review & Trade Set up report. (+10 pips)

Have a profitable week.
Ian Copsey

I SHALL BE DISCONTINUING THE TECHNICAL TRADING WEBINAR OVER THE NEXT 2-3 MONTHS TO BEGIN PROVIDING ONLINE SEMINARS IN HARMONIC ELLIOTT WAVE. FOR THIS TERM I SHALL BE WILLING TO PROVIDE THE TECHNICAL TRADING WEBINAR WITH NO REQUIREMENT TO SUBSCRIBE TO MY DAILY REPORT I WILL PRESENT THE WEBINAR PERSONALLY IN THREE MODULES EACH OF BETWEEN 1 1/2 - 2HOURS FOR JUST $69.90. PLEASE CLICK HERE TO REGISTER YOUR INTEREST.

FX-forecaster Trader Package now available at €20.00 pm
For MT4 users

No comments:

Post a Comment