Thursday, September 2, 2010

Still a bit more to go… but could be messy

I can’t say everything went as planned yesterday, far from it, but the resumption in the underlying Dollar bearish correction lower did at least occur. The only problem was that without the correct structure the support & resistance went haywire. Just concentrating on EURUSD and GBPUSD I still feel the correction has further to go, the latter probably more so and this may well cause potential for some disjointed moves between the pair. It seems to me as if EURUSD needs a modestly deep correction whereas GBPUSD does not so what I’d like to see is more consolidation out of GBPUSD while the deeper correction develops in EURUSD… At the end of the day we should see them both higher but once this rally ends we should see the Dollar move higher resume.

Now… USDCHF… the warning was in the exactness of the weekly target… It’s just not normal to see that accuracy. However, the drop, when it came was again quite sharp and that forces me to abandon that pattern completely in favor of more losses. It has actually made a deep enough correction at 1.0181 so there’s little room on the upside but bags more room on the downside. While the potential for a longer correction remains (and clouded by the sharpness of the move to 1.0181) be aware of the continuing downside risk.

USDJPY… This is another that has frozen in mid-air, balanced between bullish & bearish. Which way it breaks in the short term will define the next move – whether it be to marginal new lows or just a direct resumption of gains. I remain with the opinion that, one way or another, this will recover but it’s more a case of whether that’s direct or from a not-so-deep-new low…

If I look to EURJPY for guidance it tends to make life even more complicated unfortunately. This pullback my just be a deep one for the downside to resume or we may just see a minor new high above 109.55 before that decline begins. Given the next decline in EURUSD should be a pretty solid one I’m still banking on this being the driving force. However, there is potential confusion in the anticipated routes in both currency pairs… Best watch out for key support & resistance to extract the clues…

AUDUSD was much stronger than expected and has me a little mixed which is similar to USDCAD which was much weaker than expected… I’d rather watch for the coming structure to emerge and taking into account the support & resistance areas to provide stronger guidance with these two.

Today’s free analysis is for AUDUSD and can be found on along with yesterday’s Trader Package Review & Trade Set up report. (+15 pips)

Good luck.
Ian Copsey

FX-forecaster Trader Package now available at €20.00 pm
For MT4 users

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